Rob Ford was elected Mayor of Toronto in 2010, and ever since then, it's been one piece of silliness or scandal after another. Rob Ford is The Distraction Express when it comes to Toronto politics.
Today's story is no different. Apparently the Toronto Star and Gawker have been offered a video that reportedly shows Rob Ford smoking crack cocaine. And apparently, the sellers wanted a 6 figure sum for the video.
Now, I haven't seen or been offered the video. But, I always have my suspicions on stories like this. It is said that everybody has doppelganger somewhere, and I've seen enough evidence to support that thought. Also, these days computer editing software can make just about anyone look like anyone else. So even though it might look like Rob Ford, there's no guarantee that it actually is.
He shouldn't be in office really, after being convicted of a conflict of interest back in November 2012, though Rob Ford successfully appealed against being removed from office. That case isn't over though as the lawyer who brought the case is seeking leave to appeal to Canada's Supreme Court.
But this quite frankly, is a piece of silliness, just another one in a long line of silliness surrounding this Toronto Mayor, who has never helped himself, ever since being elected.
Friday, 17 May 2013
UKIP feeling the heat in Scotland
UKIP's Nigel Farage never met a controversy he didn't like. In this case, it's being protested against in Edinburgh. A number of protestors yesterday confronted him as he held a news conference in a pub, and he had to be locked in for his own protection.
Now he is trying to put a brave face on it today, by saying that he'd been in worse places than that. Yeah, right! You felt scared for your life, so you got the police to bring a van so you could get away without facing the protestors again. Because you knew in your heart, they had you pegged, to a T.
UKIP describe themselves as "...the UK’s third political party – and the only one now offering a radical alternative...". Third political party? Not true. In terms of elected representatives, they have only 11 MEPs, 3 members of the House of Lords, 1 Assembly Member in Northern Ireland, and 201 councillors in Local Elections. That's a lot lower than many parties, behind the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and even The Green Party.
Yes, they may have made a major breakthrough in England, but outside of England, they have just 1 MEP, for Wales, and 1 Assembly Member in Northern Ireland, and even this was a defection. Their only electoral success outside of England is the one MEP in Wales. This gives the impression that they are somewhat of a band of 'little Engalders', as it were.
They're fighting hard to establish themselves as a mainstream party, even going so far as to ban former BNP Members from joining or standing as candidates, but this is mere smoke and mirrors. The party's policies and actions in various situations have spoken far louder.
They proposed a 5 year freeze on immigration, and they wanted to initiate a drive to remove all illegal immigrants from the UK, something that in cost terms, is impractical. They want to leave the European Union, withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, and the European Convention on Refugees. They want cut corporation taxes and abolish inheritence taxes and national insurance. UKIP lost a sex-discriminitation case when Nikki Sinclaire was expelled from UKIP. Now you might say they lost because they mounted no defence, but to be honest, they must have known what they'd done was indefensible. This is an extremist right wing party.
And whilst Nigel Farage might find it easy to accuse Scottish Nationalism of being extremists and being "akin to fascism", but it's clear to me, that he obviously has little understanding of Scottish politics and his view of the UK is obviously a view of England primarily and not of the other nations in the Union.
However, SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, got it wrong when he said the UKIP Leader had "lost the plot." as to be honest, UKIP and Nigel Farage never had the plot in the first place. Farag'e accusations of a hate campaign as well are liudicrous. If you think a small student demonstration constitutes a hate campaign, then you know nothing about politics. UKIP has little credibility, and even less believeablity after this.
Nigel Farage might be trying to make UKIP seem more electable, but nobody should be fooled by extremism dressed up in a suit. And their audience outside England, might be extremely limited indeed.
Now he is trying to put a brave face on it today, by saying that he'd been in worse places than that. Yeah, right! You felt scared for your life, so you got the police to bring a van so you could get away without facing the protestors again. Because you knew in your heart, they had you pegged, to a T.
UKIP describe themselves as "...the UK’s third political party – and the only one now offering a radical alternative...". Third political party? Not true. In terms of elected representatives, they have only 11 MEPs, 3 members of the House of Lords, 1 Assembly Member in Northern Ireland, and 201 councillors in Local Elections. That's a lot lower than many parties, behind the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and even The Green Party.
Yes, they may have made a major breakthrough in England, but outside of England, they have just 1 MEP, for Wales, and 1 Assembly Member in Northern Ireland, and even this was a defection. Their only electoral success outside of England is the one MEP in Wales. This gives the impression that they are somewhat of a band of 'little Engalders', as it were.
They're fighting hard to establish themselves as a mainstream party, even going so far as to ban former BNP Members from joining or standing as candidates, but this is mere smoke and mirrors. The party's policies and actions in various situations have spoken far louder.
They proposed a 5 year freeze on immigration, and they wanted to initiate a drive to remove all illegal immigrants from the UK, something that in cost terms, is impractical. They want to leave the European Union, withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, and the European Convention on Refugees. They want cut corporation taxes and abolish inheritence taxes and national insurance. UKIP lost a sex-discriminitation case when Nikki Sinclaire was expelled from UKIP. Now you might say they lost because they mounted no defence, but to be honest, they must have known what they'd done was indefensible. This is an extremist right wing party.
And whilst Nigel Farage might find it easy to accuse Scottish Nationalism of being extremists and being "akin to fascism", but it's clear to me, that he obviously has little understanding of Scottish politics and his view of the UK is obviously a view of England primarily and not of the other nations in the Union.
However, SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, got it wrong when he said the UKIP Leader had "lost the plot." as to be honest, UKIP and Nigel Farage never had the plot in the first place. Farag'e accusations of a hate campaign as well are liudicrous. If you think a small student demonstration constitutes a hate campaign, then you know nothing about politics. UKIP has little credibility, and even less believeablity after this.
Nigel Farage might be trying to make UKIP seem more electable, but nobody should be fooled by extremism dressed up in a suit. And their audience outside England, might be extremely limited indeed.
Thursday, 16 May 2013
RAJAR Q1 2013: P... P... P... Problems?
It's been a busy day for me, finding time in amongst appointments, shopping and other day to day activities to look over the RAJARs. But this was one of the things that I was most interested in. What would I make of the latest results.
BBC Radio Cornwall saw an increase in listenership, on both quarter by quarter and year to year. Up 6,000 on the year, and up 23,000 on the previous quarter to 175,000. Share also rose on the quarter, up from 16.1% to 17.5%, and even though in terms of total hours, there's over 100,000 more hours recorded this year than last, somehow, that 17.5% share this year is down from last year's 18.7%. Can't figure that one out.
BBC Radio Devon also saw an increase in listenership, up 16,000 on the year and up 20,000 on the quarter to 245,000. On share, we have a strange quirk, being up from 10.0% share on the last quarter, and down from 13.6% last year, to right between the two, 11.8%. Rarely do stats come out that well.
Heart South West, in the first quarter where we can make a legitimate quarter to quarter comparison, is up from 394,000 to 408,000, an increase of 14,000. Share however was unchanged at 9.8%. This is in stark contrast though to the network figures, which are down. Heart have lost 255,000 listeners in the last year, and 132,000 listeners in the last quarter. Their share has dropped from 5.0% to 4.8%, and total hours in the last year has gone down by over 2 million, and in the last quarter by over a million. It seems that Heart South West is gaining listeners seemingly because it is not local radio, but a quirky hybrid of local and national that is relatively new to some parts of the region, and is piqueing the interest of listeners. But Heart as a network is not doing so well.
This is also the first quarter where we can make a legitimate quarter to quarter comparison for Radio Plymouth. On reach, they have gained an extra 1,000 listeners, going from 37,000 to 38,000. However, the change of breakfast presenter seems to have hurt the station quite significantly. Total hours dropped from 271,000 to 219,000. Share was also down, from 4.9% to 3.9%. How did that drop occur. Average hours per listener went down, quite sharply, from 7.3 hours per week, to 5.8 hours. It seems that work is needed to get people listening longer, because that kind of drop in just 3 months, really hurts a station like Radio Plymouth.
Radio Exe by contrast has had a more positive quarter. Like Radio Plymouth, their reach went up by 1,000. But they also saw an increase in Total Hours, from 176,000 to 196,000; and an increase in share, from 4.0% to 4.6%. They too made changes early in the year, and these changes seem to be paying off, at the moment.
Palm FM can't seem to win at the moment. They've lost 2,000 listeners in the last quarter, down to 35,000; and their share is down from 4.7% to 4.4%. They've been in flux for most of the past two quarters though, and it's only recently that things have settled down again, with a new breakfast show host. Hopefully, by Q3, we will see whether these changes are paying off for Palm.
Gold Devon saw a positive quarter, going up from 36,000 listeners to 42,000, and increasing their share from 1.3& to 1.6%. However, they have been stuck in a small range, and need to break out of it.
Pirate FM had a dire quarter in Q4 2012, and Q1 2013 doesn't look any better. They've lost 1,000 listeners, down to 152,000. Total Hours down from 1,418,000 to 1,371,000 and share down from 11.8% to 11.2%. The problem is quite easily indentifiable. Outside of breakfast, content has been cut right back to the bare bones, and they are doing mostly music and imaging. In other words, they are trying to out-Heart Heart South West. You don't win a battle by trying to sound exactly like your competition. You win a battle by being different from yoour competition, different enough to highlight their weakness and portray them as your strengths.
Overall, it seems that the three Ps, Pirate, Palm and Plymouth, need to do a lot of work to recover lost ground. The BBC and Heart are gaining at their expense.
BBC Radio Cornwall saw an increase in listenership, on both quarter by quarter and year to year. Up 6,000 on the year, and up 23,000 on the previous quarter to 175,000. Share also rose on the quarter, up from 16.1% to 17.5%, and even though in terms of total hours, there's over 100,000 more hours recorded this year than last, somehow, that 17.5% share this year is down from last year's 18.7%. Can't figure that one out.
BBC Radio Devon also saw an increase in listenership, up 16,000 on the year and up 20,000 on the quarter to 245,000. On share, we have a strange quirk, being up from 10.0% share on the last quarter, and down from 13.6% last year, to right between the two, 11.8%. Rarely do stats come out that well.
Heart South West, in the first quarter where we can make a legitimate quarter to quarter comparison, is up from 394,000 to 408,000, an increase of 14,000. Share however was unchanged at 9.8%. This is in stark contrast though to the network figures, which are down. Heart have lost 255,000 listeners in the last year, and 132,000 listeners in the last quarter. Their share has dropped from 5.0% to 4.8%, and total hours in the last year has gone down by over 2 million, and in the last quarter by over a million. It seems that Heart South West is gaining listeners seemingly because it is not local radio, but a quirky hybrid of local and national that is relatively new to some parts of the region, and is piqueing the interest of listeners. But Heart as a network is not doing so well.
This is also the first quarter where we can make a legitimate quarter to quarter comparison for Radio Plymouth. On reach, they have gained an extra 1,000 listeners, going from 37,000 to 38,000. However, the change of breakfast presenter seems to have hurt the station quite significantly. Total hours dropped from 271,000 to 219,000. Share was also down, from 4.9% to 3.9%. How did that drop occur. Average hours per listener went down, quite sharply, from 7.3 hours per week, to 5.8 hours. It seems that work is needed to get people listening longer, because that kind of drop in just 3 months, really hurts a station like Radio Plymouth.
Radio Exe by contrast has had a more positive quarter. Like Radio Plymouth, their reach went up by 1,000. But they also saw an increase in Total Hours, from 176,000 to 196,000; and an increase in share, from 4.0% to 4.6%. They too made changes early in the year, and these changes seem to be paying off, at the moment.
Palm FM can't seem to win at the moment. They've lost 2,000 listeners in the last quarter, down to 35,000; and their share is down from 4.7% to 4.4%. They've been in flux for most of the past two quarters though, and it's only recently that things have settled down again, with a new breakfast show host. Hopefully, by Q3, we will see whether these changes are paying off for Palm.
Gold Devon saw a positive quarter, going up from 36,000 listeners to 42,000, and increasing their share from 1.3& to 1.6%. However, they have been stuck in a small range, and need to break out of it.
Pirate FM had a dire quarter in Q4 2012, and Q1 2013 doesn't look any better. They've lost 1,000 listeners, down to 152,000. Total Hours down from 1,418,000 to 1,371,000 and share down from 11.8% to 11.2%. The problem is quite easily indentifiable. Outside of breakfast, content has been cut right back to the bare bones, and they are doing mostly music and imaging. In other words, they are trying to out-Heart Heart South West. You don't win a battle by trying to sound exactly like your competition. You win a battle by being different from yoour competition, different enough to highlight their weakness and portray them as your strengths.
Overall, it seems that the three Ps, Pirate, Palm and Plymouth, need to do a lot of work to recover lost ground. The BBC and Heart are gaining at their expense.
Fetish Festival blocked by court ruling
CBS Baltimore is reporting that a fetish festival that was supposed to happen this weekend coming at the DuBurns Arena in Canton, Baltimore has been cancelled after the new owners of the arena, Coppermine, got a court injunction to prevent the event taking place.
Apparently, a contract had been signed by the previous management of the arena. And Coppermine were so desperate to get out of the contract that they asked a court to intervene.
Now, there were arguments about the event not being right for the area, and that the event would have contravened the new owner's policies, but at the end of the day, a contract is a contract, and should be honoured. Just think, if they are prepared to find a way to not honour this, then they could be prepared to find a way to not honour anything else that they might happen to personally disagree with.
Would they find a way to not honour a wrestling show perhaps, becuase of health and safety concerns? Or maybe a fashion show might not get the go-ahead because the outfits being modeled might be too racy?
If I were organising an event in Baltimore of any kind, I'd be reticent about hiring the DuBurns Arena now, as I'd be wondering if they might find some obscure reason not to honour the contract.
Apparently, a contract had been signed by the previous management of the arena. And Coppermine were so desperate to get out of the contract that they asked a court to intervene.
Now, there were arguments about the event not being right for the area, and that the event would have contravened the new owner's policies, but at the end of the day, a contract is a contract, and should be honoured. Just think, if they are prepared to find a way to not honour this, then they could be prepared to find a way to not honour anything else that they might happen to personally disagree with.
Would they find a way to not honour a wrestling show perhaps, becuase of health and safety concerns? Or maybe a fashion show might not get the go-ahead because the outfits being modeled might be too racy?
If I were organising an event in Baltimore of any kind, I'd be reticent about hiring the DuBurns Arena now, as I'd be wondering if they might find some obscure reason not to honour the contract.
Wednesday, 15 May 2013
TruthSeeker: Ten Myths About DAB
It seems the anti-DAB crowd are being just as vocal as they ever were. But are they making any points? Is there any truth to what they say or is there more spin and propoganda than actual facts?
To find out, I've been reading the site Ten Myths of DAB, which claims to "...explain why the Government is intent on steamrollering this through and the secrets they are keeping from us."
The site actually manages to get off to a good start...
"The more one looks into the whole question of the proposal to switch off the FM transmission network for national stations, such as Radio's 3 and 4, the more one realises there is no compelling reason or mandate to do so as far as the consumer is concerned."
Perfectly correct, actually. There is no compelling mandate as far as the consumer was concerned. In the same way, there was no compelling mandate for the consumer to switch from Sky analogue to Sky Digital, until Sky decided they were going discontinue analogue transmissions in 2001, 11 years before the analogue terrestrial network was switched off. Sky created the mandate, just like the Government did with the analogue terrestrial television network, and they want to do with analogue radio.
But after that good start, the site goes downhill very quickly...
"The more I researched into this, the more apparent it became that because of this lack of mandate, with the exception of one report, every single document from the Government or Ofcom regarding the FM switch off is redolent of hype, marketing spin and smacks of desperation. As an ex-Marketing Director, I can smell it a mile off.
Yet the Government remains firmly committed to doing this. So why the steamroller?
The answer is simple. The commercial radio guys want to make more money.
At your expense."
Hmm. Are you so sure about that? If that were the case, the commercial radio powerhouses would be far more committed to DAB than they really are. Their support is lukewarm at best, and in fact, at worst, they are downright hostile to DAB. And they have been ever since 2008, and a report from Grant Goddard of Enders Analytics, a report incidentally I wrote about at the time. It was a hit job worthy of Fox News on a Democratic candidate, not an analysis at all.
So, if this was about the commercial radio companies, they would not be as opposed to it as they are. That is one big mark against the site.
So let's examine each of these 10 myths that the site talks about.
"Myth 1 - DAB is being consumer led."
Now, this is actually kinda interesting. This is the first myth, yet nowhere in the piece do they talk about consumers actions. They don't mention that in the past 3 years, DAB reciever sales have been consistent at 1.9 million units per year. Nor do they mention that DAB accounts for over 20% of all radio listening in this country, 4 times as much as Digital TV or the Internet, although internet listening is growing at a much faster rate, partially because of the availablity of good, solid, internet radio apps, such as TuneIn, UK RadioPlayer. BBC iPlayer Radio, and RTE Radio Player.
What they do mention is the change in emphasis in the Government's 50% target, from 50% of all listening on DAB, to 50% of all listening on Digital. That change in emphasis had not gone unnoticed by many, even within the industry.
The other thing they mention is transmission costs for the radio stations, and how they've gone up. Well of course they've gone up. Think about it, if you were transmitting on FM only, and now you're transmitting an FM signal, a DAB signal and two online streams, one for home use and one for mobile use, then transmission costs are bound to have gone up. They even quote from a 2010 House of Lords Communications Committee report that quotes figures from the RadioCentre. RadioCentre is the UK's commercial radio industry trade body., and this is the quoted piece.
"...RadioCentre told us that total transmission costs have risen from £50m a year, five years ago to £70m, of which £40m is for analogue transmission (FM and AM), £20m for DAB transmission and £10m for other forms of transmission, such as DTT and satellite..."
So, naturally they extrapolate from those figures that analogue transmission is more expensive, and that the commercial radio industry wants to shut down analogue.
Wrong.
That £40million is spread between far more analogue transmitters than DAB's £20million is. More than double the amount of transmitters. Think about this. From the Redruth transmitter, the following signals are transmitted on FM...
BBC Radio 2 on 89.7 FM
BBC Radio 3 on 91.9 FM
BBC Radio 4 on 94.1 FM
BBC Radio 1 on 99.3 FM
Classic FM on 101.5 FM
Pirate FM on 102.8 FM
BBC Radio Cornwall on 103.9 FM
Heart South West on 107.0 FM
...and the following singals are transmitted on AM...
BBC Radio Cornwall on 630 AM
BBC Radio 4 on 756 AM
BBC Radio 5 Live on 909 AM
TalkSport on 1089 AM
Absolute Radio on 1215 AM
...and each one of those signals is transmitted by a separate transmitter, on the Redruth mast. 13 stations, 13 transmitters.
In constrast, on that same Redruth mast, there are just 3 digital transmitters...
South West Digital Radio on 218.64 MHz, aka block 11B. That block transmits 7 stations.
Digital One on 222.06 MHz, aka block 11D. That block transmits 14 stations.
BBC National DAB on 225.64 MHz, aka block 12B. That block transmits 12 stations.
3 transmitters, 33 stations. Surely less transmitters to transmit more stations makes it cheaper? No, it doesn't. DAB transmission is much more expensive than FM or AM transmission, and not every AM and FM station currently broadcasts on DAB. In fact, stations like The Breeze have stopped transmitting on DAB, simply because they are not making enough money to justify transmitting on DAB.
So much for that argument.
Overall, the 'myth' that DAB is consumer led is in fact, only Half True. Consumer demand can be described as steady, both for the equipment, and the services. And in a time of recession, where spending on discretionary items such as consumer electronics has gone down significantly and led to the collapse of Comet, DAB's steady performance is more encouraging than discouraging.
Myth 2 does not have a title, but is all to do with the sound quality. Certainly this topic has sparked many a debate between audiophiles, who want the quality of signal maintained, and others, who prefer more choice, without necessarily maintaining the quality. Unless enough frequencies are released to ensure every digital transmission has a minimum of 128 kbps, and that looks unlikely, you are never going to satisfy the audiophile. I have to rate this myth as Mostly True.
"Myth 3 - DAB sales are growing year on year."
Having read this through, I have to rate this as "Pants On Fire". Here's why.
They reference the DWRG Interim Report, but notice they don't say when that report was. This is what they quote from that report...
"The take-up of DAB digital radio over the last few years has been impressive. By the end of May this year sales of DAB sets exceeded 7 million, with this figure predicted to rise to 9 million by the end of the year."
Those are not yearly sales figures, by the way, but cumulative. Then, they manage to make the dumbest of statements.
"These figures are irrelevant unless one asks the questions "Are those digital radios in daily use?" and "Are those digital radios using FM or DAB?". If a local straw poll I carried out locally is anything to go by then the answers would be "No" to the first one and "FM" to the second."
Would a local straw poll be carried anywhere else other than locally??? That's pretty dumb in itself. Then to ask if that straw poll would be anything to go by... oh dear. No, a straw poll has little value other than being very circumstancial and very flimsy. Remember, DAB represents over 20% of all radio listening in this country. 1 hour in every 5 hours is heard through DAB. Those DAB radios are definitely tuned in DAB for a not insignificant amount of time, that much is obvious from the evidence. Does it matter whether those radios are in daily use or not? Not really, that's perhaps the silliest question of the two.
Whilst it would be accurate to say that DAB have not grown in the past 3 years, and are in fact slightly down on 2008, the lack of economic context to the whole question, ie that we are and have been in a recessionary period since 2008, and sales of discretionary items like consumer electronics have plummeted to the point that one major retailer of consumer electronics collapsed under a mountain of debt, so fundamentally undermines the whole point, as to render the whole 'myth' as totally irrelevant. It's totally busted.
"Myth 4 - Radio listeners want more choice."
This is another one, where there is evidence both ways. Ask most people upfront if they want more choice, and most will generally say no. However, the evidence also says that when they have more choice, they tend to use it. This myth is rated as "Half True."
"Myth 5 - There is a robust Cost Benefit Analysis in favour of the FM switch off."
This one is more difficult, because there is a lack of evidence either way. An Ofcom commissioned report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers in 2009 was only released after being heavily redacted. Now you can go with the "no smoke without fire" principle if you like. I will point out that tyres can spin and produce smoke, but will never catch fire, rendering the whole principle useless. You have to look at this from the same kind of perspective as you would in Court. And what's more, you have to apply the same principle of "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt" to both the pro and con arguments. And if you do that, neither argument satisfies Beyond a Reasonable Doubt. This is a classic "Not Proven", a verdict that is only rendered in Scottish courts. So, due to the lack of conclusive evidence either way, the only way I can call this is "Plausible but Not Proven."
"Myth 6 - DAB has no interference"
This is another myth, that I have to rate as "Pants On Fire", because although it looks more sensible, again the evidence paints a totally different picture.
Unless you are practically right next door to an FM transmitter, nobody hears an FM signal without some background interference. No AM signal is interference free either. A decent DAB radio, placed in a good reception area, gives a signal that is free of background interference.
Now granted not everywhere has decent DAB reception. The same applies for FM. Just spend some time listening to FM on the train. Reception comes and goes like crazy, and white noise can drown out signals. DAB suffers in the same way, but instead of white noise, you get this burbling sound that is actually worse than white noise, and just as frustrating. But that is the physics of radio transmission, not a problem with DAB as a platform.
So, on the basis that the basis for the myth, is totally undermined by simple science, this is rated "Pants On Fire." It's totally busted.
"Myth 7 - The analogue infrastructrure needs £200million of capital expenditure."
This is another myth, that actually has very little evidence at all. The figure does seem to have been plucked out of thin air. £200million over the next 20 years, to maintain the FM network? That figure could be an overstatement, or it could be an understatement. Transmitter parts do need replacing from time to time, and transmitters do need regular maintenance, so that figure actually could be a gross understatement. But without more evidence, it's impossible to answer conclusively either way. This one too is "Plausible but Not Proven."
"Myth 8 - The Government are doing this to sell off the FM spectrum."
This is one of the easiest myths to bust. This is all they write on the page for that myth.
"If they are then it's wishful thinking because no-one (including PwC) have identified any commercial purpose, other than audio, for the FM spectrum were it to be freed up."
I may suggest that whoever wrote this hasn't been paying attention. Mobile phone networks are always looking for more frequencies to expand their calls and data services and increase capacity. Those companies that produce hand held walkie talkies have been lobbying for the frequencies to be used for local communication networks. Even computer network manufacturers are looking for frequencies for Wi-Fi and other wireless network technologies. To say nobody has identified any commercial purpose other than audio, is totally wrong. This one is busted and gets the "False" rating.
"Myth 9 - Digital radio listening is really taking off."
Apparently, the writer of the website, does not understand mathematics. He tries to claim that an increase from 13% to 26% is an increase of 13%. In fact, it's an increase of 100%, as the figure has doubled. Similarly, he claims that going from 19% to 21% is an increase of 2%. In fact, it's more like 10%. And with DAB listening going up by around 10% in 2012, well, it's not exactly taking off, but it is growth.
On that very simple basis, he so totally undermines his whole argument on that myth, as to render other points he makes on that page as moot and irrelevant. This is another "Pants On Fire". It is totally busted.
"Myth 10 - No such thing as a digital radio switchover. No such thing as a DAB switchover. It is an FM Switch Off."
Okay so if that is the myth, why do you then contradict yourself by then writing...
"The DCMS and Ofcom have been very clever here and a masterclass in subterfuge. Rather than talk about the Great FM Switch Off, for that is what it is, they started talking about the DAB Switchover."
You just busted your own myth, with your own words. And by the way, factually, AM still hasn't been switched off yet, and there are still a number of stations across the country broadcasting AM signals. So it wouldn't be just an FM switch off, but an analogue switch off, but it would only be a switch off, if there were nothing to replace it. But there is Digital Radio, so it is a switchover. "Pants On Fire" rating again, and this one is double busted!
Overall, this is just another example of spin and propoganda against the DAB platform, based upon half truths, and unprovables. Not one of the ten myths stood up to scrutiny and came away unscathed. The closest was myth 2, but with the demand from various companies for frequencies, the likelyhood of broadcasters being allowed to expand the number of frequencies that they have available, is so small as to be virtually impossible, which took the edge of something that was otherwise pretty accurate. Unfortunately for the anti DAB community, this site is so full of misinformation as to be useless. As a site, it gets a "Mostly False" rating. What truth there is here, is often so far out of context and over extrapolated as to make what is written very very shaky.
To find out, I've been reading the site Ten Myths of DAB, which claims to "...explain why the Government is intent on steamrollering this through and the secrets they are keeping from us."
The site actually manages to get off to a good start...
"The more one looks into the whole question of the proposal to switch off the FM transmission network for national stations, such as Radio's 3 and 4, the more one realises there is no compelling reason or mandate to do so as far as the consumer is concerned."
Perfectly correct, actually. There is no compelling mandate as far as the consumer was concerned. In the same way, there was no compelling mandate for the consumer to switch from Sky analogue to Sky Digital, until Sky decided they were going discontinue analogue transmissions in 2001, 11 years before the analogue terrestrial network was switched off. Sky created the mandate, just like the Government did with the analogue terrestrial television network, and they want to do with analogue radio.
But after that good start, the site goes downhill very quickly...
"The more I researched into this, the more apparent it became that because of this lack of mandate, with the exception of one report, every single document from the Government or Ofcom regarding the FM switch off is redolent of hype, marketing spin and smacks of desperation. As an ex-Marketing Director, I can smell it a mile off.
Yet the Government remains firmly committed to doing this. So why the steamroller?
The answer is simple. The commercial radio guys want to make more money.
At your expense."
Hmm. Are you so sure about that? If that were the case, the commercial radio powerhouses would be far more committed to DAB than they really are. Their support is lukewarm at best, and in fact, at worst, they are downright hostile to DAB. And they have been ever since 2008, and a report from Grant Goddard of Enders Analytics, a report incidentally I wrote about at the time. It was a hit job worthy of Fox News on a Democratic candidate, not an analysis at all.
So, if this was about the commercial radio companies, they would not be as opposed to it as they are. That is one big mark against the site.
So let's examine each of these 10 myths that the site talks about.
"Myth 1 - DAB is being consumer led."
Now, this is actually kinda interesting. This is the first myth, yet nowhere in the piece do they talk about consumers actions. They don't mention that in the past 3 years, DAB reciever sales have been consistent at 1.9 million units per year. Nor do they mention that DAB accounts for over 20% of all radio listening in this country, 4 times as much as Digital TV or the Internet, although internet listening is growing at a much faster rate, partially because of the availablity of good, solid, internet radio apps, such as TuneIn, UK RadioPlayer. BBC iPlayer Radio, and RTE Radio Player.
What they do mention is the change in emphasis in the Government's 50% target, from 50% of all listening on DAB, to 50% of all listening on Digital. That change in emphasis had not gone unnoticed by many, even within the industry.
The other thing they mention is transmission costs for the radio stations, and how they've gone up. Well of course they've gone up. Think about it, if you were transmitting on FM only, and now you're transmitting an FM signal, a DAB signal and two online streams, one for home use and one for mobile use, then transmission costs are bound to have gone up. They even quote from a 2010 House of Lords Communications Committee report that quotes figures from the RadioCentre. RadioCentre is the UK's commercial radio industry trade body., and this is the quoted piece.
"...RadioCentre told us that total transmission costs have risen from £50m a year, five years ago to £70m, of which £40m is for analogue transmission (FM and AM), £20m for DAB transmission and £10m for other forms of transmission, such as DTT and satellite..."
So, naturally they extrapolate from those figures that analogue transmission is more expensive, and that the commercial radio industry wants to shut down analogue.
Wrong.
That £40million is spread between far more analogue transmitters than DAB's £20million is. More than double the amount of transmitters. Think about this. From the Redruth transmitter, the following signals are transmitted on FM...
BBC Radio 2 on 89.7 FM
BBC Radio 3 on 91.9 FM
BBC Radio 4 on 94.1 FM
BBC Radio 1 on 99.3 FM
Classic FM on 101.5 FM
Pirate FM on 102.8 FM
BBC Radio Cornwall on 103.9 FM
Heart South West on 107.0 FM
...and the following singals are transmitted on AM...
BBC Radio Cornwall on 630 AM
BBC Radio 4 on 756 AM
BBC Radio 5 Live on 909 AM
TalkSport on 1089 AM
Absolute Radio on 1215 AM
...and each one of those signals is transmitted by a separate transmitter, on the Redruth mast. 13 stations, 13 transmitters.
In constrast, on that same Redruth mast, there are just 3 digital transmitters...
South West Digital Radio on 218.64 MHz, aka block 11B. That block transmits 7 stations.
Digital One on 222.06 MHz, aka block 11D. That block transmits 14 stations.
BBC National DAB on 225.64 MHz, aka block 12B. That block transmits 12 stations.
3 transmitters, 33 stations. Surely less transmitters to transmit more stations makes it cheaper? No, it doesn't. DAB transmission is much more expensive than FM or AM transmission, and not every AM and FM station currently broadcasts on DAB. In fact, stations like The Breeze have stopped transmitting on DAB, simply because they are not making enough money to justify transmitting on DAB.
So much for that argument.
Overall, the 'myth' that DAB is consumer led is in fact, only Half True. Consumer demand can be described as steady, both for the equipment, and the services. And in a time of recession, where spending on discretionary items such as consumer electronics has gone down significantly and led to the collapse of Comet, DAB's steady performance is more encouraging than discouraging.
Myth 2 does not have a title, but is all to do with the sound quality. Certainly this topic has sparked many a debate between audiophiles, who want the quality of signal maintained, and others, who prefer more choice, without necessarily maintaining the quality. Unless enough frequencies are released to ensure every digital transmission has a minimum of 128 kbps, and that looks unlikely, you are never going to satisfy the audiophile. I have to rate this myth as Mostly True.
"Myth 3 - DAB sales are growing year on year."
Having read this through, I have to rate this as "Pants On Fire". Here's why.
They reference the DWRG Interim Report, but notice they don't say when that report was. This is what they quote from that report...
"The take-up of DAB digital radio over the last few years has been impressive. By the end of May this year sales of DAB sets exceeded 7 million, with this figure predicted to rise to 9 million by the end of the year."
Those are not yearly sales figures, by the way, but cumulative. Then, they manage to make the dumbest of statements.
"These figures are irrelevant unless one asks the questions "Are those digital radios in daily use?" and "Are those digital radios using FM or DAB?". If a local straw poll I carried out locally is anything to go by then the answers would be "No" to the first one and "FM" to the second."
Would a local straw poll be carried anywhere else other than locally??? That's pretty dumb in itself. Then to ask if that straw poll would be anything to go by... oh dear. No, a straw poll has little value other than being very circumstancial and very flimsy. Remember, DAB represents over 20% of all radio listening in this country. 1 hour in every 5 hours is heard through DAB. Those DAB radios are definitely tuned in DAB for a not insignificant amount of time, that much is obvious from the evidence. Does it matter whether those radios are in daily use or not? Not really, that's perhaps the silliest question of the two.
Whilst it would be accurate to say that DAB have not grown in the past 3 years, and are in fact slightly down on 2008, the lack of economic context to the whole question, ie that we are and have been in a recessionary period since 2008, and sales of discretionary items like consumer electronics have plummeted to the point that one major retailer of consumer electronics collapsed under a mountain of debt, so fundamentally undermines the whole point, as to render the whole 'myth' as totally irrelevant. It's totally busted.
"Myth 4 - Radio listeners want more choice."
This is another one, where there is evidence both ways. Ask most people upfront if they want more choice, and most will generally say no. However, the evidence also says that when they have more choice, they tend to use it. This myth is rated as "Half True."
"Myth 5 - There is a robust Cost Benefit Analysis in favour of the FM switch off."
This one is more difficult, because there is a lack of evidence either way. An Ofcom commissioned report from PriceWaterhouseCoopers in 2009 was only released after being heavily redacted. Now you can go with the "no smoke without fire" principle if you like. I will point out that tyres can spin and produce smoke, but will never catch fire, rendering the whole principle useless. You have to look at this from the same kind of perspective as you would in Court. And what's more, you have to apply the same principle of "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt" to both the pro and con arguments. And if you do that, neither argument satisfies Beyond a Reasonable Doubt. This is a classic "Not Proven", a verdict that is only rendered in Scottish courts. So, due to the lack of conclusive evidence either way, the only way I can call this is "Plausible but Not Proven."
"Myth 6 - DAB has no interference"
This is another myth, that I have to rate as "Pants On Fire", because although it looks more sensible, again the evidence paints a totally different picture.
Unless you are practically right next door to an FM transmitter, nobody hears an FM signal without some background interference. No AM signal is interference free either. A decent DAB radio, placed in a good reception area, gives a signal that is free of background interference.
Now granted not everywhere has decent DAB reception. The same applies for FM. Just spend some time listening to FM on the train. Reception comes and goes like crazy, and white noise can drown out signals. DAB suffers in the same way, but instead of white noise, you get this burbling sound that is actually worse than white noise, and just as frustrating. But that is the physics of radio transmission, not a problem with DAB as a platform.
So, on the basis that the basis for the myth, is totally undermined by simple science, this is rated "Pants On Fire." It's totally busted.
"Myth 7 - The analogue infrastructrure needs £200million of capital expenditure."
This is another myth, that actually has very little evidence at all. The figure does seem to have been plucked out of thin air. £200million over the next 20 years, to maintain the FM network? That figure could be an overstatement, or it could be an understatement. Transmitter parts do need replacing from time to time, and transmitters do need regular maintenance, so that figure actually could be a gross understatement. But without more evidence, it's impossible to answer conclusively either way. This one too is "Plausible but Not Proven."
"Myth 8 - The Government are doing this to sell off the FM spectrum."
This is one of the easiest myths to bust. This is all they write on the page for that myth.
"If they are then it's wishful thinking because no-one (including PwC) have identified any commercial purpose, other than audio, for the FM spectrum were it to be freed up."
I may suggest that whoever wrote this hasn't been paying attention. Mobile phone networks are always looking for more frequencies to expand their calls and data services and increase capacity. Those companies that produce hand held walkie talkies have been lobbying for the frequencies to be used for local communication networks. Even computer network manufacturers are looking for frequencies for Wi-Fi and other wireless network technologies. To say nobody has identified any commercial purpose other than audio, is totally wrong. This one is busted and gets the "False" rating.
"Myth 9 - Digital radio listening is really taking off."
Apparently, the writer of the website, does not understand mathematics. He tries to claim that an increase from 13% to 26% is an increase of 13%. In fact, it's an increase of 100%, as the figure has doubled. Similarly, he claims that going from 19% to 21% is an increase of 2%. In fact, it's more like 10%. And with DAB listening going up by around 10% in 2012, well, it's not exactly taking off, but it is growth.
On that very simple basis, he so totally undermines his whole argument on that myth, as to render other points he makes on that page as moot and irrelevant. This is another "Pants On Fire". It is totally busted.
"Myth 10 - No such thing as a digital radio switchover. No such thing as a DAB switchover. It is an FM Switch Off."
Okay so if that is the myth, why do you then contradict yourself by then writing...
"The DCMS and Ofcom have been very clever here and a masterclass in subterfuge. Rather than talk about the Great FM Switch Off, for that is what it is, they started talking about the DAB Switchover."
You just busted your own myth, with your own words. And by the way, factually, AM still hasn't been switched off yet, and there are still a number of stations across the country broadcasting AM signals. So it wouldn't be just an FM switch off, but an analogue switch off, but it would only be a switch off, if there were nothing to replace it. But there is Digital Radio, so it is a switchover. "Pants On Fire" rating again, and this one is double busted!
Overall, this is just another example of spin and propoganda against the DAB platform, based upon half truths, and unprovables. Not one of the ten myths stood up to scrutiny and came away unscathed. The closest was myth 2, but with the demand from various companies for frequencies, the likelyhood of broadcasters being allowed to expand the number of frequencies that they have available, is so small as to be virtually impossible, which took the edge of something that was otherwise pretty accurate. Unfortunately for the anti DAB community, this site is so full of misinformation as to be useless. As a site, it gets a "Mostly False" rating. What truth there is here, is often so far out of context and over extrapolated as to make what is written very very shaky.
Friday, 3 May 2013
UK Local Elections 2013: What actually happened.
Well, that was a very interesting election. Let me start with the three stories that I originally posted about after 10pm last night.
Let's start with the overall result in Cornwall.
Liberal Democrats - 36
Independent - 35
Conservative - 31
Labour - 6
UK Independence Party - 6
Mebyon Kernow - 4
The Labour and Co-operative Party - 2
Unspecified - 2
Green Party - 1
Liberal Party in Cornwall - 0
Compare that result, with the result from back in 2009
Conservative - 50
Liberal Democrat - 38
Independent - 32
Mebyon Kernow - 3
Labour - 0
UK Independence Party - 0
Green Party - 0
Liberal Party - 0
British National Party - 0
English Democrats - 0
Unspecified - 0
Now the first thing you'll notice is that the Conservatives have lost a lot of seats, 19 in all, so yeah, not a great election for them, going down from first to third. But the Liberal Democrats shouldn't be celebrating too much either. They might be the largest party in the council now, but they have lost 2 seats overall, so not exactly a stellar performance either.
Labour had a reasonable election gaining back 6 seats, 8 if you include their Co-operative allies. They had been totally wiped out when the county council became a Unitary authority in 2009, but this is a good result. Most of the seats were in the old Falmouth and Camborne constituency, although two were in Penzance, one in Mevagissey and the biggest surprise was Labour winning the Gunnislake and Calstock ward, although the candidate who won this time, was orignally an Independent in 2009.
UKIP did well as well, gaining their first seats on the unitary authority. They won 2 wards in Camborne, they also won in Four Lanes; Lynher; Mabe, Perranarwothal & St Gluvias; and Newquay Treviglas.
Mebyon Kernow made 2 gains in Penwithick and Boscoppa, & Crowan and Wendron, but lost a ward in Camborne, bring their seat count to 4. The Greens made a gain in St Ives as well, and two candidates who got elected did not even specify their political affiliation Kinda strange to think two councillors got elected and nobody knows their political affiliation, so you don't know what you were voting for.
Surprisingly, Independent candidates continued to do well with 3 more Independents being elected this time compared to 2009. And one of those candidates who got elected was surprisingly, Colin Brewer.
The man who said disabled children cost the council too much money and should be put down, got re-elected by only 4 votes in Wadebridge East. 335 votes to 331 for the second place Liberal Democrat. Unsurprisingly, there were a lot of boos ringing out in Wadebridge at the count when that result was announced. There was a facebook campaign running to stop him running in the election, I imagine the campaign to get him out of office again will picking up steam.
However, one man who did lose his seat today was Alec Robertson, the former council leader, before he was forced to resign. His seat in Helston North was won by Independent Phil Martin with 590 votes, with Robertson only getting 494 votes. Robertson was one of 19 Tories as I said earlier who lost this time around.
Nationally, the picture wasn't much better for the Tories. They lost control of 10 councils. Two councils Labour retook control of. Those councils were Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. The Liberal Democrats and UKIP gained no councils at all. The Conservatives also lost 335 coucnil seats overall, with the Liberal Democrats, their coalition partners, also losing councillors, 124 in all. Labour recovered most ground on the night, gaining 291 council seats, and UKIP, the major talking point in the news tonight, gained 139 seats.
Overall, the smaller parties made small gains. Greens gained 5 seats overall, Residents Association gained 2 new seats, bringing their total to 12, and the Liberal Party, the remnants of the original Liberal party that didn't merge with the SDP to become the Liberal Democrats, they gained another seat too, bringing their total to 3. However, not all the small parties gained ground. The British National Party lost the 3 seats they held on councils. So now, there are no BNP councillors.
In the South West, whilst Cornwall and Bristol remained in No Overall Control, the Tories did manage to hold onto Devon, Somerset and Dorset councils. As I reported earlier, the Tories barely held onto Somerset, whilst Dorset was more comfortable. Devon also ended up being reasonably comfortable for the Tories, winning 38 of the 62 seats available. No other party got into double figures. Liberal Democrats won 9 seats, Labour 7 seats, UKIP 4 seats, Independents 3 seats and Greens 1 seat.
Bristol remians in No Overall Control, but the picture was very interesting. Out of the 23 seats contested this time, 10 changed hands, and they were all from the Liberal Democrats. 7 went to Labour, 2 to the Green Party and one to an Independent. Bristol was one of the few areas where UKIP failed to win a seat.
UKIP though did have a good night overall. In Lincolnshire, they won 16 seats from a total standing start. In a few councils, UKIP are now the official opposition, mostly to the Tories, who should really be their right wing allies, but are splitting the right wing vote, in much the same way that the SDP caused a major split in the left wing vote in the 1980s after they split from Labour.
So there we have it. Good night for Labour, better for UKIP, not so good for the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats could have come out worse, but they also could have faired a lot better.
Let's start with the overall result in Cornwall.
Liberal Democrats - 36
Independent - 35
Conservative - 31
Labour - 6
UK Independence Party - 6
Mebyon Kernow - 4
The Labour and Co-operative Party - 2
Unspecified - 2
Green Party - 1
Liberal Party in Cornwall - 0
Compare that result, with the result from back in 2009
Conservative - 50
Liberal Democrat - 38
Independent - 32
Mebyon Kernow - 3
Labour - 0
UK Independence Party - 0
Green Party - 0
Liberal Party - 0
British National Party - 0
English Democrats - 0
Unspecified - 0
Now the first thing you'll notice is that the Conservatives have lost a lot of seats, 19 in all, so yeah, not a great election for them, going down from first to third. But the Liberal Democrats shouldn't be celebrating too much either. They might be the largest party in the council now, but they have lost 2 seats overall, so not exactly a stellar performance either.
Labour had a reasonable election gaining back 6 seats, 8 if you include their Co-operative allies. They had been totally wiped out when the county council became a Unitary authority in 2009, but this is a good result. Most of the seats were in the old Falmouth and Camborne constituency, although two were in Penzance, one in Mevagissey and the biggest surprise was Labour winning the Gunnislake and Calstock ward, although the candidate who won this time, was orignally an Independent in 2009.
UKIP did well as well, gaining their first seats on the unitary authority. They won 2 wards in Camborne, they also won in Four Lanes; Lynher; Mabe, Perranarwothal & St Gluvias; and Newquay Treviglas.
Mebyon Kernow made 2 gains in Penwithick and Boscoppa, & Crowan and Wendron, but lost a ward in Camborne, bring their seat count to 4. The Greens made a gain in St Ives as well, and two candidates who got elected did not even specify their political affiliation Kinda strange to think two councillors got elected and nobody knows their political affiliation, so you don't know what you were voting for.
Surprisingly, Independent candidates continued to do well with 3 more Independents being elected this time compared to 2009. And one of those candidates who got elected was surprisingly, Colin Brewer.
The man who said disabled children cost the council too much money and should be put down, got re-elected by only 4 votes in Wadebridge East. 335 votes to 331 for the second place Liberal Democrat. Unsurprisingly, there were a lot of boos ringing out in Wadebridge at the count when that result was announced. There was a facebook campaign running to stop him running in the election, I imagine the campaign to get him out of office again will picking up steam.
However, one man who did lose his seat today was Alec Robertson, the former council leader, before he was forced to resign. His seat in Helston North was won by Independent Phil Martin with 590 votes, with Robertson only getting 494 votes. Robertson was one of 19 Tories as I said earlier who lost this time around.
Nationally, the picture wasn't much better for the Tories. They lost control of 10 councils. Two councils Labour retook control of. Those councils were Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. The Liberal Democrats and UKIP gained no councils at all. The Conservatives also lost 335 coucnil seats overall, with the Liberal Democrats, their coalition partners, also losing councillors, 124 in all. Labour recovered most ground on the night, gaining 291 council seats, and UKIP, the major talking point in the news tonight, gained 139 seats.
Overall, the smaller parties made small gains. Greens gained 5 seats overall, Residents Association gained 2 new seats, bringing their total to 12, and the Liberal Party, the remnants of the original Liberal party that didn't merge with the SDP to become the Liberal Democrats, they gained another seat too, bringing their total to 3. However, not all the small parties gained ground. The British National Party lost the 3 seats they held on councils. So now, there are no BNP councillors.
In the South West, whilst Cornwall and Bristol remained in No Overall Control, the Tories did manage to hold onto Devon, Somerset and Dorset councils. As I reported earlier, the Tories barely held onto Somerset, whilst Dorset was more comfortable. Devon also ended up being reasonably comfortable for the Tories, winning 38 of the 62 seats available. No other party got into double figures. Liberal Democrats won 9 seats, Labour 7 seats, UKIP 4 seats, Independents 3 seats and Greens 1 seat.
Bristol remians in No Overall Control, but the picture was very interesting. Out of the 23 seats contested this time, 10 changed hands, and they were all from the Liberal Democrats. 7 went to Labour, 2 to the Green Party and one to an Independent. Bristol was one of the few areas where UKIP failed to win a seat.
UKIP though did have a good night overall. In Lincolnshire, they won 16 seats from a total standing start. In a few councils, UKIP are now the official opposition, mostly to the Tories, who should really be their right wing allies, but are splitting the right wing vote, in much the same way that the SDP caused a major split in the left wing vote in the 1980s after they split from Labour.
So there we have it. Good night for Labour, better for UKIP, not so good for the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats could have come out worse, but they also could have faired a lot better.
UK Local Elections 2013: Overnight Developments
So far, not a lot of surprises in the local elections, or indeed, in the one By-Election that was held yesterday to replace David Milliband in South Shields. Labour held onto the seat with a reduced majority in terms of votes.
Labour's Emma Lewell-Buck got 12,493 votes, with UKIP's Richard Elvin coming in second with 5,988 votes. Karen Allen for the Conservatives was a distant third with 2,857 votes. Ahmed Khan, who stood as an Independent came in fourth with a respectable 1,331 votes. Hugh Annand for the Liberal Democrats came in a very disappointing 7th with just 352 votes, coming behind the Independent Socialist Party candidate and the BNP candidate, losing their deposit. Overall, an unsurprising result, though the Liberal Democrats coming in only 7th with less votes than an Independent, Independent Socialist and BNP, is a big surprise, I don't think I can ever recall them doing worse in any election ever.
In the Local Elections overnight, Conservatives lost control of 2 councils. Lincolnshire had been strongly Tory with the Conservatives holding 60 out of the 77 seats in the council. Today they are still the largest party in council, but hold on 36 seats, 3 seats short of an overall majority. However, the council maintains a storng right wing slant, with UKIP being the second major party with 16 seats, all gains. Labour came in third with 12 seats, an increase of 8 on last time, with 10 Independents and 3 Liberal Democrats.
The other council they lost was Gloucestershire, where they had previously 34 seats on the 53 seat council. Now they have just 23. Liberal Democrats came second here with 14, gaining 2 seats, in an election where they have so far mostly lost seats, Labour came third with 9 seats, with 3 Indepenents, 3 UKIP and 1 Green. There is no obvious coalition to be made here, with Conservatives and UKIP being 1 seat short of a total majority.
In Somerset the Conservatives just managed to hold onto control of the council by just 1 seat. They won 28 out of the 55 seats available, with 18 Liberal Democrats, 3 Labour, 3 UKIP and 3 Independents. There is 1 seat unfilled currently, the Coker Division, the election for that is being held on May 16th, so we will have two weeks before we know if the Conservatives can win that one and make that council just a little bit safer.
Dorset however remained true blue as the Conservatives only lost 1 seat there, still easily maintaining control with 27 out of the 45 available seats. The remaining seats, 12 have gone to the Liberal Democrats, 5 have gone to Labour, and 1 UKIP.
Today, we will see the remaining councils declare their results, one already has, where they only elected a third of the council, that is Bristol. which remains under No Overall Control, as there have been some unusual gains across the political spectrum, Greens have gained 2 seats in Ashley and Bishopston, Conservatives have gained seats, Labour have gained seats, in fact, out of the 12 seats so far declared in Bristol, only 4 have been held onto by the party that held the seat before. Also going to follow Cornwall and Devon county council results, but already UKIP are showing they have done far better this year, than they have previously done before.
Labour's Emma Lewell-Buck got 12,493 votes, with UKIP's Richard Elvin coming in second with 5,988 votes. Karen Allen for the Conservatives was a distant third with 2,857 votes. Ahmed Khan, who stood as an Independent came in fourth with a respectable 1,331 votes. Hugh Annand for the Liberal Democrats came in a very disappointing 7th with just 352 votes, coming behind the Independent Socialist Party candidate and the BNP candidate, losing their deposit. Overall, an unsurprising result, though the Liberal Democrats coming in only 7th with less votes than an Independent, Independent Socialist and BNP, is a big surprise, I don't think I can ever recall them doing worse in any election ever.
In the Local Elections overnight, Conservatives lost control of 2 councils. Lincolnshire had been strongly Tory with the Conservatives holding 60 out of the 77 seats in the council. Today they are still the largest party in council, but hold on 36 seats, 3 seats short of an overall majority. However, the council maintains a storng right wing slant, with UKIP being the second major party with 16 seats, all gains. Labour came in third with 12 seats, an increase of 8 on last time, with 10 Independents and 3 Liberal Democrats.
The other council they lost was Gloucestershire, where they had previously 34 seats on the 53 seat council. Now they have just 23. Liberal Democrats came second here with 14, gaining 2 seats, in an election where they have so far mostly lost seats, Labour came third with 9 seats, with 3 Indepenents, 3 UKIP and 1 Green. There is no obvious coalition to be made here, with Conservatives and UKIP being 1 seat short of a total majority.
In Somerset the Conservatives just managed to hold onto control of the council by just 1 seat. They won 28 out of the 55 seats available, with 18 Liberal Democrats, 3 Labour, 3 UKIP and 3 Independents. There is 1 seat unfilled currently, the Coker Division, the election for that is being held on May 16th, so we will have two weeks before we know if the Conservatives can win that one and make that council just a little bit safer.
Dorset however remained true blue as the Conservatives only lost 1 seat there, still easily maintaining control with 27 out of the 45 available seats. The remaining seats, 12 have gone to the Liberal Democrats, 5 have gone to Labour, and 1 UKIP.
Today, we will see the remaining councils declare their results, one already has, where they only elected a third of the council, that is Bristol. which remains under No Overall Control, as there have been some unusual gains across the political spectrum, Greens have gained 2 seats in Ashley and Bishopston, Conservatives have gained seats, Labour have gained seats, in fact, out of the 12 seats so far declared in Bristol, only 4 have been held onto by the party that held the seat before. Also going to follow Cornwall and Devon county council results, but already UKIP are showing they have done far better this year, than they have previously done before.
Thursday, 2 May 2013
UK Local Elections 2013: What I'm looking at.
Okay, so it's after 10pm, and I can now talk about the local elections. In Cornwall, where I'm based, we have three particular stories that are going to be commanding my attention. Two are about individual councillors, and the third is the council as a whole.
The first story is Alec Robertson. He was the leader of Cornwall Council until last year when he was forced to resign by some of those within the Conservative/Independent administration running Cornwall Council over privatising some council services. In 2009, Alec Robertson won his ward of Helston North by 244 votes. Will he win again, or will UKIP having a candidate there, by the name of Leonie Gough, reduce his vote to the point where either the Independent candidate Phil Martin or the Liberal Democrat candidate Mollie Scrase can pull out the victory. Or indeed will UKIP pull out a victory?
The second story is Colin Brewer. He was an independent councillor until the end of February 2013, when he resigned over a comment that he made at an information event at County Hall in 2011, that disbaled children cost the council too much money and should be put down. But by April, he had submitted papers to be a candidate once again for the ward of Wadebridge East. But this time, he has a much tougher task ahead of him. In 2009, Colin Brewer won his ward by 145 votes, but he was only up against a Conservative and another Independent. This time, he's up against another Independent, Conservative, UKIP, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates. I think it's safe to say that he has a much tougher task ahead of him this time.
Now, onto the Council itself. 123 councillors being elected in 122 wards, and last time in 2009, the Conservatives were the largest overall party with 50 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 38 seats, Independents had 32 seats, and the remaining 3 seats went to Mebyon Kernow. Labour, UKIP and the Greens were all seatless in Cornwall. But remember, that was in 2009, when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister and Labour was the party in power. Nowadays, David Cameron is Prime Minister, and there is a coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in power.
Now Cornwall has traditionally been a 3 way political battle, between Independents, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. But nationally, the Con/Dem coalition, as it is known in some circles, has not been very popular. With austerity biting harder than expected and for longer, neither party is expected to do well. But there is an added wrinkle here. The council has been run by Conservatives and Independents, some of whom are not expected to do well either.
This means that we could see more minor parties making headway in Cornwall. Labour have traditionally not been strong in Cornwall, although Candy Atherton did have some limited success as a Labour MP in Falmouth and Camborne. And if we are to see any surge in Labour vote, it is most likely in the areas around Falmouth and Camborne. Mebyon Kernow is the only one of the minor parties to have seats currently, and they would be expecting to do better than in 2009, but whether they do or not is something we will see over the coming hours.
UKIP have been making slow headway nationally, and they are expecting to get at least one councillor elected at the expense of the Conservatives. The Greens do have candidates standing in some wards, but little is expected. Also standing in some wards are The Liberal Party in Cornwall and the Labour and Co-Operative Party, as well as the obligatory plethora of independents, with some wards having as many as 4 independent candidates on the ballot.
Outside of Cornwall, it's mostly England that is electing councillors today, though the Isle of Anglesey in Wales is also holding an election. Full county council elections are happening in 27 counties, but most are counting tomorrow. The notable exceptions are Somerset, Dorset and Hampshire, who start counting tonight. Labour and UKIP will be expecting to make gains in this election, with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats losing ground. Whether we will see other parties like the Greens, BNP and the English Democrats making any headway as well as a result, is up in the air. 7 unitary authorities are also holding elections, Cornwall is one of those. Only Bristol though is not electing a full council, they elect a third of the council this year.
There are two mayoral elections, in Doncaster and North Tyneside, and the Isles of Scilly is also electing their unitary authority. In some council areas as well, such as Cornwall, there are parish, town and city council elections also taking place. This means that in some areas, counting will be going on until about 10pm Friday night.
All in all, a lot of ground to be covered over the next 24 hours or so, and this will be a key electoral test, more so for Ed Milliband and Nigel Farage, than for David Cameron or Nick Clegg. We will see what happens over the next 24 hours.
The first story is Alec Robertson. He was the leader of Cornwall Council until last year when he was forced to resign by some of those within the Conservative/Independent administration running Cornwall Council over privatising some council services. In 2009, Alec Robertson won his ward of Helston North by 244 votes. Will he win again, or will UKIP having a candidate there, by the name of Leonie Gough, reduce his vote to the point where either the Independent candidate Phil Martin or the Liberal Democrat candidate Mollie Scrase can pull out the victory. Or indeed will UKIP pull out a victory?
The second story is Colin Brewer. He was an independent councillor until the end of February 2013, when he resigned over a comment that he made at an information event at County Hall in 2011, that disbaled children cost the council too much money and should be put down. But by April, he had submitted papers to be a candidate once again for the ward of Wadebridge East. But this time, he has a much tougher task ahead of him. In 2009, Colin Brewer won his ward by 145 votes, but he was only up against a Conservative and another Independent. This time, he's up against another Independent, Conservative, UKIP, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates. I think it's safe to say that he has a much tougher task ahead of him this time.
Now, onto the Council itself. 123 councillors being elected in 122 wards, and last time in 2009, the Conservatives were the largest overall party with 50 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 38 seats, Independents had 32 seats, and the remaining 3 seats went to Mebyon Kernow. Labour, UKIP and the Greens were all seatless in Cornwall. But remember, that was in 2009, when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister and Labour was the party in power. Nowadays, David Cameron is Prime Minister, and there is a coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in power.
Now Cornwall has traditionally been a 3 way political battle, between Independents, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. But nationally, the Con/Dem coalition, as it is known in some circles, has not been very popular. With austerity biting harder than expected and for longer, neither party is expected to do well. But there is an added wrinkle here. The council has been run by Conservatives and Independents, some of whom are not expected to do well either.
This means that we could see more minor parties making headway in Cornwall. Labour have traditionally not been strong in Cornwall, although Candy Atherton did have some limited success as a Labour MP in Falmouth and Camborne. And if we are to see any surge in Labour vote, it is most likely in the areas around Falmouth and Camborne. Mebyon Kernow is the only one of the minor parties to have seats currently, and they would be expecting to do better than in 2009, but whether they do or not is something we will see over the coming hours.
UKIP have been making slow headway nationally, and they are expecting to get at least one councillor elected at the expense of the Conservatives. The Greens do have candidates standing in some wards, but little is expected. Also standing in some wards are The Liberal Party in Cornwall and the Labour and Co-Operative Party, as well as the obligatory plethora of independents, with some wards having as many as 4 independent candidates on the ballot.
Outside of Cornwall, it's mostly England that is electing councillors today, though the Isle of Anglesey in Wales is also holding an election. Full county council elections are happening in 27 counties, but most are counting tomorrow. The notable exceptions are Somerset, Dorset and Hampshire, who start counting tonight. Labour and UKIP will be expecting to make gains in this election, with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats losing ground. Whether we will see other parties like the Greens, BNP and the English Democrats making any headway as well as a result, is up in the air. 7 unitary authorities are also holding elections, Cornwall is one of those. Only Bristol though is not electing a full council, they elect a third of the council this year.
There are two mayoral elections, in Doncaster and North Tyneside, and the Isles of Scilly is also electing their unitary authority. In some council areas as well, such as Cornwall, there are parish, town and city council elections also taking place. This means that in some areas, counting will be going on until about 10pm Friday night.
All in all, a lot of ground to be covered over the next 24 hours or so, and this will be a key electoral test, more so for Ed Milliband and Nigel Farage, than for David Cameron or Nick Clegg. We will see what happens over the next 24 hours.
Sunday, 21 April 2013
R.I.P. Douglas Mounce
Douglas Mounce, formerly of BBC Radio Devon and Radio Plymouth, was an inspiration to me. One of the original voices of BBC Radio Devon, host of Treasure Hunt, the Sunday morning gameshow, and Showtime, all about the songs from the shows, amongst many other programmes, he had an infectious personality and superb wit. I will miss his wonderful on air personality.
Saturday, 20 April 2013
Boston Marathon Bombings: Suspect in custody
Later on, I will talk more about this, but I have to say this now. Boston Police have someone in their twitter team who is quite a poet, for in tweeting about the suspect's capture, they wrote this.
The hunt is over.
The search is done.
The terror is over.
And justice has won.
Very poetic and very appropriate.
The hunt is over.
The search is done.
The terror is over.
And justice has won.
Very poetic and very appropriate.
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