Yesterday, Mark Reckless was a Conservative MP for the constituency of Rochester & Strood. Today, he’s the probable UKIP candidate for the seat, in a by-election that could be happening in November.
Just like his name, his move to join UKIP and resign as a Conservative MP, was Reckless. There’s no guarantee that he will get re-elected. In fact, based upon what happened earlier today in Rochester, Mark Reckless, might have committed a reckless move of political suicide, by joining UKIP.
Channel 4 News political correspondent Michael Crick, has written about what was supposed to be the former MP’s triumphant return to Rochester with Nigel Farage, and the fact that it turned into a roasting for Reckless, at the hands of a local Conservative constituency organisation that had revenge and vengeance on their minds.
Most of what Reckless heard were Conservative activists who were unsurprisingly disgusted at what he’d done, and gave him a piece of their minds, and there were a lot of those. Mark Reckless, could well have defected himself out of a job, that he could have held onto for about 8 or 9 more months.
Michael also raises a good point about Labour here. Should they run a campaign here or let Tories and UKIP fight it out between themselves? To me, the answer is obvious. Yes, they should run a campaign in Rochester & Strood and run it hard. After all, until 2010, it had been a Labour seat. Reckless may well pull a group of voters to UKIP with him, and hopefully, it will split the right wing vote enough for Labour, or some other party if Labour don’t feel up to it, to go in and potentially win the vote. The Green Party would be a good party to get behind right now, if they decide to submit a candidate.
There have been comparisons made with the final days of John Major’s government in the mid 1990s. In some ways, this is worse, as the Referendum Party was at the time, an untried, untested movement in electoral terms. UKIP are tried and tested, and have won some seats, mainly at the council level, but also in the European Parliament. Some people are expecting UKIP to win at least a seat at the UK General Election next year. I expect that UKIP won’t win a seat, but their very presence will probably mean the Conservatives will lose seats, mostly to Labour.
Overall, this weekend may have proved that political defections are fraught with danger and if you make a Reckless move, you may just end up paying the penalty. You have to wonder who was the more reckless, Mark Reckless or Nigel Farage?
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