Viewpoint: Politicians trying to return to centre stage

 

So Rishi Sunak has managed to survive over 100 days in office. Now by itself, that doesn't seem like anything worth talking about, but let's remember that his predecessor, Liz Truss, didn't even make it to 50 days in office.

However, the longer his tenure in number 10 goes on, the more it looks like the same kind of shenanigans that we saw during Boris Johnson's time in office, and considering that Rishi Sunak has been talking up restoring trust in British Politics, his current situation with scandals are making those sound like empty, hollow words.

The whole situation with Nadhim Zawahi's taxes shot a rather nasty hole in his rhetoric, but the current bullying accusations against Deputy PM Dominic Raab is making the whole situation worse, and with both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss looking to return to centre stage of the political theatre, it's getting harder and harder to see just how long Sunak will be able to withstand the kind of pressure that caused both Johnson and Truss to be forced from centre stage by the long hook of political Vaudeville. You know the ones. When some variety act was out on stage too long in the old Vaudeville days, an incredibly long hook would suddenly appear from off stage, hook around the performer, and they'd be pulled off stage to bring their act to an early and ignominious end.

But now we have both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, both of whom were pulled off stage by politics's own version, now trying to return to centre stage and reclaim some spotlight for themselves. At one time, if you were pulled off stage by the long hook of political theatre, you retired from centre stage gracefully, and those that avoided it saw it coming and made their own exit before they got pulled.

Now it seems the hook has a new target. Rishi Sunak, and it seems that both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss are trying to use it to force Sunak off stage, whilst at the same time making it seem like they are the best choices to replace him.

The thing is though, we're all fed up of this ongoing mess of political theatre shenanigans and would prefer a general election to be held, rather than having to watch the Tories go through yet another leadership election, and to be fair, I think there are plenty of Tories within the rank and file who would prefer a general election to the continued shambles that is the Tory party currently.

It's way past time that this political theatre production was shut down, and this current crop of hacks put out to pasture, to make way for a different production that just might be more popular than this one.

Viewpoint Special: Boris Johnson's Resignation.

 

So, this is finally it. After 59 resignations from government, leaving it in absolute tatters and unable to do it's work, after countless lies and denials, and playing the incompetence card, by claiming he forgot, or he didn't know, Boris Johnson is finally set to depart Number 10 Downing Street, probably in the autumn, once the Tory Party has spent a few months trying to find someone willing to take on the severely poisoned chalice that is governing a UK that is falling apart after Boris Johnson's tenure, and while Boris Johnson takes the wallpaper down that he had put up in the flat.

And it all started when Chris Pincher, had to resign as Deputy Chief Whip, because he had groped 2 men in a private members club, the Carlton Club, a known Tory watering hole. He then lost the party whip the next day, despite the fact that hours earlier, the party claimed it would not be removing the whip from him because he had done the right thing in stepping down. Then Johnson's spokesman, a man who gave Comical Ali a run for his money, told journalists that Johnson hadn't been aware of any specific allegations against Pincher before appointing him in February.

The Sunday papers called him out on that lie and as Sunday became Monday, it became clearer that the question wasn't did Boris Johnson know, it was more how much did he know, and when did he stop knowing it?

Tuesday saw the bomb being dropped, when Lord MacDonald, the former permanent under secretary at the Foreign Office, and the EIEIO, published a letter revealing that a complaint was made against Pincher, back when he was at the Foreign Office in 2019, and that Johnson was personally informed about it. Downing Street had to admit that Lord MacDonald's recollection of events was correct, but that Boris had actually forgotten about it when appointing Pincher in February.

Tory MPs, who had already been mutineering in large numbers due to Partygate, were now in open revolt. Letters of no-confidence began flooding in to the 1922 committee. Tuesday evening's 6 O Clock News on BBC1 had to open up with breaking news about the resignations of Savid Javid and Rishi Sunak. Almost a dozen other junior ministers, Parliamentary Private Secretaries, a trade envoy, and even the Solicitor General, resigned their posts with immediate effect. Boris Johnson was on borrowed time at this point, it was just a case of how long he was going to try and hang on.

The Night Of The Long Knives, became a Night and Day of the Long Knives, as Wednesday saw many more Tory MPs, over 30 all told, junior ministers, ministerial aides and trade envoys all quit their government posts with immediate effect. By 10 O'Clock that night, the Tory whip's office had calculated that Boris could only get support from 65 Tory MPs, out of almost 360. The maths were simply against him. Yet Boris vowed to fight on, even sacking Michael Gove in an act that was of pure desperation, as much as it was out of revenge. Michael Gove had told him earlier in the day it was time to go, and a ministerial delegation, including his new Chancellor, who he'd appointed Tuesday Night to replace Rishi Sunak, told him his time was up. And more letters of no confidence arrived at the 1922 committee.

More resignations came on Thursday, bringing the total to 59. The government couldn't even function properly. Finally, Boris came to realise what we had all known. His time in number 10 was up. 2 years and 348 days. That was the entirety of his time as Prime Minister. Theresa May had made it to 3 years and 12 days. Boris Johnson had fallen short. But, them's the breaks.

And yet, the after effects of his time in office will be felt long after he is gone. His departure is without any dignity, just desperation and delusion, clinging on to power even though his own cabinet was trying to oust him in a political coup. What brought him down was his constant lying, trying almost to out-Trump Donald Trump during his tenure as US President. His tenure in office could best be described as a Shakespearian tragedy, written by monkeys on typewriters. He piled lies, on top of lies, on top of lies, and when that failed, he pulled out the incompetence card, claiming to have forgotten, or not known, or not understood. He prefered being thought of as incompetent, rather than admitting his own mistakes.

And despite all the protestations of enough is enough and Boris had gone one step too far, Boris Johnson was a known entity when he entered 10 Downing Street, he was known to be a liar and the same people who were crying out over Boris's lies, were the ones who put him there. The Tory party elected him to replace Theresa May in the first place. Surely, they must have known what they were letting themselves in for. If they did, their protestations this past week ring incredibly hypocritical. If they didn't, then they are as incompetent as Boris is.

They sat idly by and watched him take a flamethrower to the unwritten British constitution, to standards in public life, to their own party, and just let it happen. The Tory party is unfit to govern this country, or a local council, or even a school. Trust and integrity meant nothing to them, so why are they so up in arms about it now? Could it be that they are just protecting their own behinds, because they are seeing the possibility of losing their seats at the next general election, whenever that happens to be?

Trust in politics now is the lowest its ever been and its not hard to see why. Everything from the “oven-ready” Brexit deal that even Boris had to admit was unworkable, through to his painfully slow and inept response to Covid and beyond, have eroded trust in politics as quickly as a heatwave in the Arctic would erode the polar ice cap.

Boris Johnson won a 80 seat majority at 2019's general election, and he basically rendered it moot and useless, through a mixture of hubris, ambition, lies and incompetence. The damage that Brexit has done will take many many years to undo, and that will only begin to happen when someone decides to undo it, something Sir Keir Starmer this past week indicated he wasn't going to do. Scotland is in all likelihood going to break away from the UK, and who knows when Wales will follow suit and leave because it'll be easier to take your own chances than trust in Westminster and a system of governence that has been forever broken by Boris Johnson. And then there's Cornwall and Yorkshire and other areas outside of London and the Home Counties, who have seriously gotta consider whether it's worth staying in a broken system that cannot be repaired or take your chances on the world stage on your own.

Nothing about life after Boris Johnson's premiership looks good. Even the opposition themselves don't look that good. They talked about ousting Boris Johnson as Caretaker PM through a vote of no-confidence in the House. I mean, talk about opening the stable door, after the horse has already bolted and jumped it.

There has been more chaos in Westminster over the last 6 years, than we've seen in all the previous administrations since WW2 ended, and frankly, the country is sick of it. Politics is thought of as boring, but the last 6 years have been anything but boring. We could do with at least a few years boring old politics as usual, so the country can recover from 6 years of chaos that was started by a prime minister who couldn't face what he had done, so he left. 6 years later, the mess is still there, it's getting worse, and nobody seems ready to face the prospect of cleaning it up.

Viewpoint: The Russia Report released.

So, a day earlier than expected, The Russia Report finally gets released to the world, and whilst there's nothing that is a smoking gun, what is says is potentially more damaging to the British government, moreso to David Cameron's administration of it, than the current one, though their reluctance to actually publish this is very notable as well.

Whilst it doesn't actually say if Russia interfered in the EU Referendum, and let's be honest, we know they did, the Russians are truly the only ones to actually benefit from the UK leaving the EU, so of course they would try and interefere, it fits their style, it fits the whole KGB-esque way that Vladimir Putin has run things during his time as President, the fact that it criticises the UK government for not even trying to investigate if such a thing was happening, is way more damning. 

The report does say that Russia has been engaging in influence campaigns targetting British Politics using things like social media campaigns, wealthy individuals and other means.  Evidence of this dates back to 2014's Scottish Referendum on Independence, yet apparently, there was no attempt to discern if such behaviour was being done during the Brexit campaign.  Spoiler Alert: Yeah, there was, we saw it with our own eyes on social media.

Bias by deliberate action is one thing.  But bias by deliberate inaction is worse.  And allowing interference in internal affairs by deliberately avoiding investigating, is frankly unforgivable.  This government as a whole needs to resign, on mass.  Yes, I know, we don't want another general election, we've had so many in these last few years, but frankly, that would be a small price to pay.

Unsurprisingly, The Kremlin has dismissed all this as "Russophobia", but I would say, there was no "Russophobia" until Putin started showing he was still doing things the old KGB way.  Coincidence?  No way!

Russia interfered in Scottish Independence, they interefered in the EU referendum, they interfered in the US Presidential Election in 2016, they've interefered plenty since, and now the world is finally realising just how low and sneaky and downright dispicible Vladimir Putin has been, the fact that he has been running Cold War style campaigns of disinformation for the purposes of not just growing Russian influence and power in the world, but also to generate outcomes that will favour his country, it is going to get a lot harder for Russia to continue that kind of influence peddling.  They're already being called out for it on social media everytime they try.  And then, there's what will happen in 2024, when his second term in office comes to an end.  Plus, what is happening with the global pandemic in Russia currently.  Politics in Russia is going to be very interesting in the next few years, especially after the constitutional amendments he got voted in earlier this month, giving him the power to effectively veto candidates for the Prime Minstership, before they even stand for office, and stating that Russian law supercedes international law.  That is not going to go down well globally.

This was not closure on this issue.  We might not get any closure on this until Putin is out of political office and maybe not even then.  But the more we know about what Putin is doing, the more it makes him look like a wannabe global dictator.  We must be on the look out for more Russian influence peddling and trying to influence public opinion on social media, because that's the only way we can effectively counter what is going on.

Viewpoint: Is opinion polling broken?

This is not something that has suddenly happened this year, this has been something brewing for a number of years, and I'm really beginning to more than question the accuracy of the polls.  I'm actually beginning to think that the whole process of opinion polling may now be fatally flawed, or at best compromised badly.

Now, there have been some changes to what is prompted by the questioners, but in my view, that is not the big problem.  My feeling is that the biggest issue right now with opinion polling is the way it is conducted right now, and how they select the people they interview.

Some pollsters now use a regular group of volunteers polling them on the internet.  Then they weight the results based on demographic information.  This I feel is seriously flawed, because it is open to manipulation.  Anybody can volunteer to give their time to the polling companies, and often, I suspect that some parties might try to get their operatives to volunteer to load the system up with representatives of a particular party.  The weighting aspect of this method is also flawed, because it's based on a lot of assumptions that don't actually always play out as you think they would. 

Those that still rely on telephone calls to canvas potential voters, are also somewhat flawed.  Calls from polling companies are often cold calls, and as such are not treated well by respondents.  The idea that you can get an accurate idea of opinions from a bunch of random cold calls, is a seriously flawed idea.

The net result is reflected in the actual results of the polls themselves.  Since Boris Johnson took over as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister, he has stumbled so many times that he makes his predecessor Theresa May look actually competent.  He lost almost all of the key votes in Parliament in the short time he was in there as PM, he lost a battle in the courts over an illegal prorogation of Parliament., and he's been losing and poorly performing in TV debates already.  Yet, this week, a poll by Opinionum for The Observer, put Boris Johnson's Conservatives 19% ahead of everybody else. 

This does not add up.  Public perception of Boris Johnson is not a good one.  He's seen as an incompetent blunderer, full of bluster and Brexit, full of sound and fury signifying absolutely nothing.  Even within his own party, he's not seen as a great politician.  Yet somehow, his party has a massive lead in the polls?  How on earth do you square that circle of hell?  Nothing about that adds up at all.

Jeremy Corbyn hasn't been viewed as a competent leader of the Opposition.  This is despite him inflicting more government defeats in his time as leader of the Opposition than any previous opposition leader in the modern era.  And whilst some of his decisions have been questionable, any lack of competence he has shown pales into insignificance behind the incompetence of both Boris Johnson, and his predecessor Theresa May as PM.

To my practiced eyes and mind, something isn't adding up here, and not all of this can be blamed entirely on the media, as much as many might like to believe that to be the case.  Sure some of it can be blamed on media bias, but the Tory press is a dying medium right now, they are losing readers, they are losing money, and they just can't be the only factor.  A contributing factor yes, but not the main one.

And as Sherlock Holmes would say, when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however unlikely, must be the truth.  So, we must look to the polling methodologies themselves, and how flawed they are, and as I've already stated, they are seriously flawed, compromised beyond reasonable expectations.

Even the Exit Polls of the two previous elections in 2015 and 2017, which are done face to face, rather than over the phone or by internet, have been a bit off the mark when it came to actually predicting the result.  Granted they weren't as far off the mark as they were back in 1992, when they completely screwed up, but it's far enough for me to question their reliability.  In other countries, exit polling has been much more accurate in predicting the result.  It does leave me wondering how we on the UK aren't able to get it right when other countries pollsters can.

That's why I question the weighting that is given to polls.  It seems to be at least a bit out of sync with actual reality.

Overall, I have to believe that something is serious wrong in the world of opinion polling, and yes, it might be broken, maybe even broken beyond repair.

Boris The Buffoon becomes Mayor Boris of London

When someone says the name "Boris Johnson" to me, lots of things come to mind. His untidy, unruly mop of a haircut is one. His unerring ability to gaffe even the simplest issues is another.

Now, as well as being an MP for Henley at the Westminster parliament, he has been elected as Mayor Of London. His style is known to be eccentic, almost buffoon-like in its eccentricity. A perfect example of this is a comment that was written in a column in the Daily Telegraph in 2004.

"There is absolutely no one, apart from yourself, who can prevent you, in the middle of the night, from sneaking down to tidy up the edges of that hunk of cheese at the back of the fridge."

What brought that line out in the article? Who knows, who cares! Boris's eccentricity and buffoonery are legend, as is his ability to gaffe. Indeed, The Hindu in India, in refering to the election of Boris used the headline "Gaffe-prone Johnson is London Mayor". Amongst the many times he has gaffed are the following...

"...The proposed ban on incitement to “religious hatred” make no sense unless it involves a ban on the Koran itself..." from his Daily Telegraph column in 2005.

"...Yes, cannabis is dangerous, but no more than other perfectly legal drugs. It's time for a rethink, and the Tory party - the funkiest, most jiving party on Earth - is where it's happening..." from his Daily Telegraph column in 2001

"...Look the point is ... er, what is the point? It is a tough job but somebody has got to do it..." upon being appointed Shadow Arts Minister in 2004.

"...I can't remember what my line on drugs is. What's my line on drugs?" During the 2005 UK General Election.

His opinions on people seem to change too. Witness the following quote from 2003 on US Presdient Bush from an editorial in the Spectator.

"...The President is a cross-eyed Texan warmonger, unelected, inarticulate, who epitomises the arrogance of American foreign policy..."

But he wasn't so vitriolic against him in his book "Have I Got Views For You"...

"...Not only did I want Bush to win, but we threw the entire weight of The Spectator behind him."

Now we have a buffoon, running the capital city. The term "political circus" has never been more apt. London is about to become a circus with Boris as a ringmaster in clown's makeup! It could be that Boris's gaffing between now and the next General Election might actually put a dent in David Cameron's plans to be PM. The Conservatives may have won the Battle Of London but they might lose the war as a result. Only time will tell.

The London Mayoral Election Result

Well, about ten minutes to midnight, and the results are finally announced at City Hall. With no single candidate getting over 50% of the vote after first preference votes were counted, it was down to Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone, and despite Ken picking up more second preference votes than Boris, the gap after first preference votes had been too great to make up, therefore, Boris Johnson is the new Mayor Of London.

The capital city, will be run by the biggest buffoon in UK politics.

I'll prove my point in a later post.