Well, this is one of those situations where a story is going to run and run and run, and who knows what the outcome will be at the end of it.
We still have 13 seats unfilled at this point, and no partty has got even 50 seats. Here's the state of play.
Fine Gael - 46 - Still the largest party, but with a lot less seats this time.
Fianna Fail - 42 - Much improved performance.
Sinn Fein - 22 - Best performance ever.
Independents - 15 - The big unknown factor in this equation.
Labour - 6 - They need one more seat to hold onto their speaking privileges.
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 5 - Could be one of the keys to government for FF and FG.
Independent Alliance - 4 - Another unknown here, but definitely not to be ignored.
Social Democrats - 3 - These guys made a good start, but now they have to work as TDs
Green Party - 2 - Back in the Dail, and we'll see how that goes.
Renua Ireland was the higest profile party not to get a seat.
The Labour Party in Ireland, could be going through their own Liberal Democrat moment. Joan Burton could become like Nick Clegg. They've suffered a big loss at the polls, and Joan Burton's future as leader is hanging by the proverbial thread.
But even Fine Gael might not be in the clear yet. Dependent on how things go in coalition negotiations, the future of Enda Kenny's leadership may also be in question.
All in all, this story still has a long way to run, and expect Dublin's ISEQ to be significantly down on Monday, as markets hate uncertainty.
Showing posts with label Independent Alliance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Independent Alliance. Show all posts
Sunday, 28 February 2016
Irish General Election 2016: Into Day 3
Day 1 was the day the votes were cast. Day 2 was when the counting began. Now we're into Day 3 of this, and we do have the first preference counts from all 40 consituencies, so now we know what the official share of the first preference vote is, and it goes like this...
Fine Gael - 25.5% - 10.6% lower than in 2011
Fianna Fail - 24.3% - 6.9% higher than in 2011
Sinn Fein - 13.8% - 3.9 higher than in 2011
Independents - 13.0% - 0.4% higher than in 2011
Labour - 6.6% - 12.8% lower than in 2011
Independent Alliance - 4.2% - New party in this election.
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 3.9% - Wasn't in this current form in 2011.
Social Democrats - 3.0% - New party in this election.
Green Party - 2.7% - 0.9% higher than in 2011
Renua Ireland - 2.2% - New party in this election.
Others - 0.7% - 2.0% lower than in 2011
So what do these figures tell us? Well, first of all, it tells us the governing parties of Fine Gael and Labour took a spanking at these elections, both losing significant share of the first preference vote. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein do look to be the big winners, both making significant gains on their 2011 position. But ultimately Fianna Fail must be disappointed. They must have felt they had a chance to overtake Fine Gael, as the tide seemed to slowly turn against the governing parties. But they didn't quite capitalise on it.
However it must be said, they did far better than the opinion polls suggested. In fact, in the run up, the opinion polls were way off.
This table came from Wikipedia, where I found all the polling data over the last 5 years, but I focused on the last week of the campaign. Fine Gael's support was overestimated, quite significantly. Sinn Fein's support was often over-estimated too. Fianna Fail was underestimated, as were the others in this list, the Independents and the parties not listed in the polling data, including the Independent Alliance.
You can understand how disappointed Fine Gael feel, especially if they trusted this data to be accurate. In some cases, the +/- 3.0% margin of error still left a gross over-estimation of support.
So, what does that mean in terms of seats? Well seats are not filled by first preference votes alone in this election, but a number of Fianna Fail candidates did win on First preference votes alone, getting over the quota line without supplementaries. Right now as I write this, 95 of the 158 have been filled, and the state of play is this.
Fine Gael - 28
Fianna Fail - 28
Sinn Fein - 13
Independents - 10
Labour - 4
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 4
Independent Alliance - 4
Social Democrats - 3
Green Party - 1
Renua Ireland - 0
Others - 0
Doing some quick percentage maths, that means that currently, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on course to win 47 seats each. Not even 50 seats. I actually expect them to make the 50 seat level but just barely. I think a few more seats could go to the minor parties, Sinn Fein and Labour, and maybe a couple more Independents, but it's difficult to know exactly how many will go to which party.
What we do know is that it's squeaky bum time. Every seat declaration today will be watched with great interest as both Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin will be trying to work out who they can do deals with to secure a majority, and ultimately, whether they could work out a deal with each other to keep Sinn Fein out of power.
Fine Gael - 25.5% - 10.6% lower than in 2011
Fianna Fail - 24.3% - 6.9% higher than in 2011
Sinn Fein - 13.8% - 3.9 higher than in 2011
Independents - 13.0% - 0.4% higher than in 2011
Labour - 6.6% - 12.8% lower than in 2011
Independent Alliance - 4.2% - New party in this election.
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 3.9% - Wasn't in this current form in 2011.
Social Democrats - 3.0% - New party in this election.
Green Party - 2.7% - 0.9% higher than in 2011
Renua Ireland - 2.2% - New party in this election.
Others - 0.7% - 2.0% lower than in 2011
So what do these figures tell us? Well, first of all, it tells us the governing parties of Fine Gael and Labour took a spanking at these elections, both losing significant share of the first preference vote. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein do look to be the big winners, both making significant gains on their 2011 position. But ultimately Fianna Fail must be disappointed. They must have felt they had a chance to overtake Fine Gael, as the tide seemed to slowly turn against the governing parties. But they didn't quite capitalise on it.
However it must be said, they did far better than the opinion polls suggested. In fact, in the run up, the opinion polls were way off.
| Date | Source/Link | Polling Agency | FG | Lab | FF | SF | AAA -PBP | RI | SD | GP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 February 2016 | General election | N/A | 25.5 | 6.6 | 24.3 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 17.9 |
| 26 February 2016 | RTÉ[p 1] | Behaviour & Attitudes | 24.8 | 7.1 | 21.1 | 16.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 16.6 |
| 26 February 2016 | The Irish Times[p 2] | Ipsos MRBI | 26.1 | 7.8 | 22.9 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 16.1 |
| 25 February 2016 | TheJournal[p 3] | DIT | 32 | 8 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 23 February 2016 | Paddy Power[p 4][p 5] | Red C | 30 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16[nb 2] |
| 22 February 2016 | The Irish Times[p 6] | Ipsos MRBI | 28 | 6 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 18[nb 3] |
| 21 February 2016 | Sunday Independent[p 7][p 8] | Millward Brown | 27 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14[nb 4] |
| 21 February 2016 | The Sunday Business Post[p 9][p 10] | Red C | 30 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15[nb 5] |
| 21 February 2016 | The Sunday Times[p 11][p 12] | Behaviour & Attitudes | 30 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15[nb 6] |
This table came from Wikipedia, where I found all the polling data over the last 5 years, but I focused on the last week of the campaign. Fine Gael's support was overestimated, quite significantly. Sinn Fein's support was often over-estimated too. Fianna Fail was underestimated, as were the others in this list, the Independents and the parties not listed in the polling data, including the Independent Alliance.
You can understand how disappointed Fine Gael feel, especially if they trusted this data to be accurate. In some cases, the +/- 3.0% margin of error still left a gross over-estimation of support.
So, what does that mean in terms of seats? Well seats are not filled by first preference votes alone in this election, but a number of Fianna Fail candidates did win on First preference votes alone, getting over the quota line without supplementaries. Right now as I write this, 95 of the 158 have been filled, and the state of play is this.
Fine Gael - 28
Fianna Fail - 28
Sinn Fein - 13
Independents - 10
Labour - 4
Anti-Austerity Alliance - 4
Independent Alliance - 4
Social Democrats - 3
Green Party - 1
Renua Ireland - 0
Others - 0
Doing some quick percentage maths, that means that currently, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on course to win 47 seats each. Not even 50 seats. I actually expect them to make the 50 seat level but just barely. I think a few more seats could go to the minor parties, Sinn Fein and Labour, and maybe a couple more Independents, but it's difficult to know exactly how many will go to which party.
What we do know is that it's squeaky bum time. Every seat declaration today will be watched with great interest as both Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin will be trying to work out who they can do deals with to secure a majority, and ultimately, whether they could work out a deal with each other to keep Sinn Fein out of power.
Saturday, 27 February 2016
Irish General Election: Saturday Afternoon Roundup
Well, we've only had one seat filled, which has gone to Fine Gael's Sean Barrett. But all indications from the tallies that we've been getting via twitter and live blogs, seem to suggest that there are some significant changes on the way in Irish Politics.
Most of the first counts are expected between about 4pm and 7pm, with either eliminated candidates, or those who pass the 'quota', that is to say the minimum number of votes required to win a seat in the constituency, which is different depending on constituency size and turnout, their 'supplementary votes', votes of the other preferences below first preference, will then be counted to help determine who else is elected from that constituency.
It is a complex and slightly esoteric system of electing a parliament, but it's that kind of quirkiness that gives it its appeal, in my eyes. The Single Transferable Vote system allows for a less predictable election result, especially in situations like this where you have multiple parties, and multiple candidates sometimes from the same party, battling over a limited number of seats.
The Single Transferable Vote would be quite workable here in the UK too, as it could be made to work in single seat constituencies. The quota just becomes a straight 50% +1 vote of the total number of votes cast, and candidates would be eliminated from the bottom upwards, until we got a candidate over that threshold.
So, the declarations will shortly actually begin, and we'll get official word on who has actually been elected. More on this later.
Most of the first counts are expected between about 4pm and 7pm, with either eliminated candidates, or those who pass the 'quota', that is to say the minimum number of votes required to win a seat in the constituency, which is different depending on constituency size and turnout, their 'supplementary votes', votes of the other preferences below first preference, will then be counted to help determine who else is elected from that constituency.
It is a complex and slightly esoteric system of electing a parliament, but it's that kind of quirkiness that gives it its appeal, in my eyes. The Single Transferable Vote system allows for a less predictable election result, especially in situations like this where you have multiple parties, and multiple candidates sometimes from the same party, battling over a limited number of seats.
The Single Transferable Vote would be quite workable here in the UK too, as it could be made to work in single seat constituencies. The quota just becomes a straight 50% +1 vote of the total number of votes cast, and candidates would be eliminated from the bottom upwards, until we got a candidate over that threshold.
So, the declarations will shortly actually begin, and we'll get official word on who has actually been elected. More on this later.
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