Iowa Caucus: The early analysis

So far, 88& of precincts have reported, but I think the situation is clear enough for me to come up with my first analysis of the results.

No matter whether Rick Santorum technically finishes first or whether Mitt Romney does, neither candidate can really call it a victory. They've been statistically tied most of the way.

Ron Paul finishing third, just 4% back of the two front runners is very respectable. This could be the platform that Ron Paul has been looking for for years, and it is definitely his best chance of getting to the White House. It's probably also his last chance, as he is 66 now.

Newt Gingrich being placed 4th may not be what he was hoping for, but I'm not sure he'll think the result bad enough to force him to drop out.

Rick Perry coming in 5th, with about 10%. Normally that might be considered bad enough to force a candidate to drop out. But Rick Perry has fundraised a lot of money. Over $15million in fact. His ability to fundraise might just keep him in this.

For the other two in the race, their future seems surprisingly clear. Michele Bachmann in 6th with just 5%, seems destined to drop out. However, she is not known for being able to read the political tea-leaves very well. She may well try to stay in the race, to try and secure a Vice-Presidential nod from one of the other candidates, maybe trying to position herself as a Sarah Palin-esque type candidate, but better, with more experience.

For John Huntsman, in last place with a mere 1%, it is most definitely over. I imagine he will drop out of the race in the next 24-48 hours.

I imagine the next 24 hours will clear up the picture significantly, so I'll be coming back to this story again.

America Votes 2008: Iowa Caucus

So, the results are in, just about. We know who won, we know who lost, and we know who's heading for the race exit door.

On the Democratic side, which saw apparently a record turnout, Barack Obama polled 940 votes, John Edwards polled 744 votes and Hilary Clinton polled 737 votes. As far as the other candidates go, Bill Richardson polled 53 votes, Joe Biden polled 23 and Chris Dodd polled a single vote. 3 were uncommited. Neither Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel polled a single vote.

It was not long after the final result was announced that word came out from the relevant camps, that both Sen. Joseph Biden and Sen. Christopher Dodd, had pulled out of the race to become the Democratic nominee for this year's race to the White House.

Since neither Mike Gravel or Dennis Kucinich polled a single vote, both candidates must and should be, seriously considering whether their bids for the White House should continue. Even Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, should be looking at whether his bid for the White House has much gas left in the tank. I still think he could come up on the rails and it is not inconcievable that he could pull of an unlikely victory, but more and more, this is looking like a three-horse-race.

On the Republican side, things are a little different.

With 96% of the precincts reporting, Mike Huckabee is leading and almost certainly has won, with currently 39,814 votes. Mitt Romney polled 29,045 votes. Fred Thompson polled 15,521 votes with John McCain polling 15,248 votes, just slightly behind Thompson. Ron Paul polled 11,598 votes whilst Rudi Guiliani came a bad sixth with just 4,013 votes. Duncan Hunter (who?) came in last with 515 votes.

On the Republican side, the pressure is really on for ALL the candidates. Miken Huckabee won Iowa, but it's considered that New Hampshire is a much tougher state for him because the kind of Christian Conservatives that he appeals to, just aren't there in New Hampshire. Mitt Romney also needs to come up big in New Hampshire. To keep him in the campaign, he really needs to win, or at least come a decent close second. Thompson really needs to pick up ground in New Hampshire, otherwise his campaign is dead in the water. Current polls there indicate he is way off the pace there with just 2%. John McCain also needs at worst a second place in New Hampshire or he is very likely to be truly out of the running.

Ron Paul and Rudi Guiliani on the other hand don't seem quite so badly off. Rudi hasn't strongly campaigned in either Iowa or New Hampshire and seems to pinning his hopes on Super Tuesday, February 5th, when 18 states go to the polls. The problem is of course that this strategy could backfire rather badly if Huckabee's momentum in Iowa spreads through New Hampshire and on to Super Tuesday. Ron Paul needs at least a third in New Hampshire to keep his momentum going, but even he wouldn't be entirely dead in the water if he didn't. But he would be in some degree of difficulty if he didn't.

As for Duncan Hunter, he may as well quit now. His chances were always remote and now seem about as likely as snow during a Florida Summer!

At the moment, I am watching coverage of the "Countdown To New Hampshire" live on MSNBC, via their web site. I hope they continue broadcasting live on the web, as out of all the US based news channels, only CNN broadcasts on the web, and that's audio only. I really would like to see more news channels broadcasting on the web and in video too.