Romney wins Illinois: Santorum and Gingrich need to stop.

According to CNN, Mitt Romney is on 562 delegates, compared to Rick Santorum on 249 and Newt Gingrich on 137.  There is only 1267 delegates left, and Santorum needs 895 delegates, 70% of the remaining delegates.  Gingrich is worse off.  He needs 79% of the remaining delegates, a massive 1007 delegates.  And we are about half way through this process.

No way can Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich turn this around.  Both Newt and Rick have indicated they are looking to hang around to the Convention.  But if neither of them have the most delegates, and Mitt Romney does, Romney will be chosen, not Santorum or Gingrich.

Both men need to suspend their campaigns now.

We suspect that Newt might quit the race if he loses Louisiana.  Rick Santorum on the other hand, doesn't seem to understand he's running out of time.  The math is heading up towards impossible, though Newt will get there first, and if neither man wants to be totally shunned by their Republican colleagues, they should both bail out of the race soon.

Of course, it seems that Newt has so much personal animosity to Mitt Romney, I wouldn't rule out Newt making an independent run.  Not that I expect him to do well in such a run.

Puerto Rico goes to Romney

Well, CNN and AP are projecting a win for Mitt Romney, and a fairly convincing one.  With 16% of the vote in, Mitt Romney has 83% of the vote.  Nobody else is anywhere close.  So under the rules, despite it being proportional, Mitt Romney is projected to walk away with 20 delegates from this one territory, a territory that will be voting on statehood in November.  We could soon be talking about Puerto Rico as the 51st state in the union.

The greater the delegate lead that Mitt Romney has, the less likely it looks that Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul can pull off the amount of delegates required.  In fact, Mitt Romeny is on course, based upon the numbers of delegates won so far, to reach 1215 delegates, 71 over the winning line.

Rick Santorum, needs 2/3rds of the remaining delegates to win, and in this contest, that is looking more and more unlikely.

This race is to all intents and purposes, Mitt Romney's to lose.  But it doesn't seem likely that he will.

USA 2012: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii, American Samoa

Well, last night during US primetime, it seemed pretty clear that Rick Santorum had a good night. But in the cold light of day now, the figures don't really back up that good feeling he might have had last night.

Despite winning the vote in the two states with the most delegates at stake last night, Rick Santorum has not gained much ground on Mitt Romney. Here's how the figures look today.

Alabama was the state that Santorum won most comfortably, with 34.5% of the vote, against Newt Gingrich in 2nd with 29.3% and Mitt Romney coming 3rd with 29.0%. However in the current delegate count, that only gives Santorum 18 more delegates, with Gingrich getting 12 and Romney 11. 9 delegates at this stage are unallocated. That only gives Santorum a net gain of 7 delegates.

In Mississippi it was much closer, with Santorum getting 32.9% with Gingrich getting 31.3% and Romney getting 30.3%. Which means that in the delegate count, Santorum gets 13, Gingrich 12 and Romney 12. 3 delegates were unallocated. So only a net gain of 1 delegate for Santorum. Total net gain, in the biggest states that were up for grabs last night, 8 delegates.

And that gain is pretty much wiped out from Hawaii. There Mitt Romney won handily, with 45.4% of the vote, Rick Santorum coming second with 25.3% and Ron Paul coming in third with 18.3%. In the delegate count, this means Romney got 9 delegates, Santorum 4 and Ron Paul 1. 6 delegates remain unallocated. That result cuts Santorum's net gain down to just 3 delegates.

And CNN reported that Mitt Romney also won the caucus in American Samoa, which would be another 6 delegates, and 3 more unallocated, though this has yet to be confirmed.

According to Politico, the delegate count is now Romney 463, Santorum 247, Gingrich 127, Paul 47. 100 delegates remain unallocated.

Sunday sees Puerto Rico going to their polls for 20 at large delegates and 3 RNC delegates, winner takes all. Santorum I understand is going to spend two days there to try to win the territory. But I would expect Romney to win this. Which then leads us to next Tuesday and Illinois, which has a large 69 delegate count up for grabs.

With Newt Gingrich not getting any wins last night, especially in his favoured Southern states, he really needs to ask himself if he has a way to the nomination. It seems that Santorum and Gingrich are banking on a brokered convention. But unless the convention goes with the candidate that has the most delegates, any other candidate is going to seem incredibly weak, espeically if they haven't been a part of the process. I can't see anybody other than Mitt Romney being the nominee. The way the states line up, and the fact that California on June 5th is 172 delegates, winner takes all, which I seriously think is one of Romney's states, I just can't see how either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrinch are going to look like anything else other than also-rans the whole way.

Alabama and Mississippi Primaries tonight.

So we have two primaries tonight in Alabama and Mississippi. And the number of delegates that are available to the candidates are falling.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are behind in the delegate race, as is Ron Paul, but we know that Ron Paul is not interested in getting the nomination, but in taking the Republican party away from social conservatism, which moderates and independents do not support.

Mitt Romney needs another 713 delegates out of the remaining 1491. That's about 48%. Rick Santorum needs 932 delegates, or 62.5% of the remaining delegates. Newt Gingrich needs 1041 delegates or 70% of the remaining delegates. Because most of the remianing states assign delegates proportionally, the chances for Santorum and Gingrich to make up the required number of delegates is shrinking down to a very small chance. I'd say both of them have two chances, dogs chance and no chance at all.

And Gingrich has put all his eggs into these two baskets. If he doesn't win both states, he will unquestionably leave the race. But whether this actually benefits Rick Santorum or not is open for debate. Yes, the arguement has been that Newt Gingrich + Rick Santorums vote counts in several states would have taken those states away from Mitt Romney, but it does seem that it is almost too late for that to be a major factor anymore. Romney is the leader in the delegate count, the only count that really matters.

Oh and currently, there are 82 unassigned delegates, who will probably go to Mitt Romney anyway, or whoever has the most number of delegates at the end of this. I cannot see any of these currently unpledged delegates going any other way than to the candidate that will have the most delegates, and since I fully expect that to be Mitt Romney, that's where I think they will go.

Today, theres 50 delegates in Alabama, 40 delegates in Mississippi, plus 20 delegates in Hawaii and 9 delegates in American Samoa. That's 119 delegates out of the 1491 remaining. Unless either Santorum or Gingrich get more delegates than Romney, BOTH should exit the scene, stage right, on the double.

Iowa Caucus: The early analysis

So far, 88& of precincts have reported, but I think the situation is clear enough for me to come up with my first analysis of the results.

No matter whether Rick Santorum technically finishes first or whether Mitt Romney does, neither candidate can really call it a victory. They've been statistically tied most of the way.

Ron Paul finishing third, just 4% back of the two front runners is very respectable. This could be the platform that Ron Paul has been looking for for years, and it is definitely his best chance of getting to the White House. It's probably also his last chance, as he is 66 now.

Newt Gingrich being placed 4th may not be what he was hoping for, but I'm not sure he'll think the result bad enough to force him to drop out.

Rick Perry coming in 5th, with about 10%. Normally that might be considered bad enough to force a candidate to drop out. But Rick Perry has fundraised a lot of money. Over $15million in fact. His ability to fundraise might just keep him in this.

For the other two in the race, their future seems surprisingly clear. Michele Bachmann in 6th with just 5%, seems destined to drop out. However, she is not known for being able to read the political tea-leaves very well. She may well try to stay in the race, to try and secure a Vice-Presidential nod from one of the other candidates, maybe trying to position herself as a Sarah Palin-esque type candidate, but better, with more experience.

For John Huntsman, in last place with a mere 1%, it is most definitely over. I imagine he will drop out of the race in the next 24-48 hours.

I imagine the next 24 hours will clear up the picture significantly, so I'll be coming back to this story again.

Ron Paul on Face The Nation

Strange to hear a Republican admit that 9/11 was the fault of the US Government.

A Democrat/Republican ticket?

The 2008 US presidential election just threw a curve, and it was a curve nobody was expecting.

The word is out that if Dennis Kucinich (Democrat) gets the Democratic Party's nomionation, he wants Ron Paul (Republican) as his running mate.

If a Kucinich/Paul ticket were to emerge, whether it was a Demcoratic or Republican nomination, or an independent ticket, it would be one of the more interesting events of this election so far.

There's been a lot of talk of an independent ticket from Michael Bloomberg or someone else, but this ticket has potential. You can bet this is one story I'll be following all the way.