Making Sense on Scottish Independence: The questions over what happens next…

I have noticed that a lot of people on social media have a lot of misconception about the whole Scottish Independence issue, especially in the area of what happens afterwards if the vote is in favour of independence.

Let’s start making some sense.  Nothing is going to happen immediately after the result is known.  Independence is a process that will only begin, once the result is known.  During that process, there will be a general election, which will mean that Scottish MPs will continue to sit in the House of Commons until Independence actually happens.  Oh and by the way, there is also a Scottish Parliamentary Election due in 2015, as well as elections to the Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland. 

There are lots of issues to actually sort out, such as currency, cross border trade, EU membership, UN membership, separation of the public services that are still controlled from Westminster and many others.  One of my favourite things to watch is what will actually happen to the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Channel 5 in Scotland if they actually vote for independence.  Independence is a process and a negotiation that will take a couple of years to actually sort out.  And there could be two changes of government, one of each side of the negotiation, during the process. 

So we’re looking at a process that will take at least two years to actually sort out, and implement.  So independence for Scotland wouldn’t actually happen until late 2016 at the earliest, and probably not until 2017 if we’re being realistic.

But even if the vote result is not for independence, there will be some very interesting moves of powers from Westminster to Scotland, that much we know is going to happen, but what those exact powers will be, will only be known if the vote goes against independence.

Make no mistake, the story does not end with the result coming out next month.  In fact, we’ll just be getting to the good stuff, either way.

New BBC site: Democracy Live

The BBC has launched a new site as part of BBC News.  It’s called Democracy  Live and presents live coverage of the parliaments in Westmister, Holyrood and Brussels, and the assemblies at Stormont and Cardiff Bay.

Democracy Live also presents recorded coverage of every chamber, committee room and the Westminster Hall as well.

Super Thursday: Scottish Parliamentary Election Roundup.

Prior to this Election, Labour was the largest party in the Scottish Parliament with 50 seats. They were the major party in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Today, the Scottish Nationalist Party is the largest party with 47 seats, compared to Labour on 46, Conservatives on 17, Liberal Democrats on 16, Green Party on 2 and 1 Independent.

In terms of the individual constituencies, Labour won the most constituencies with 37, SNP got 21, Liberal Democrats got 11 and the Conservatives got 4. It was in the regional lists vote that the SNP and Conservatives did best. The SNP won 26 of those regionally based seats, Conservatives have 13, Labour have 9, Liberal Democrats 5, Greens 2 and 1 Independent.

Turnout across Scotland was high at 51.8%, which translates to just over 2 million votes cast.

The big story of the night will unquestionably be the high number of spoilt ballots cast in this election. It was noted on the night, by myself and the BBC's Nick Robinson that this was an unusual trend, with in one constituency, spoilt ballots making up 7.2% of the votes cast.

I note that the Electoral Commission, who oversee all elections here in the UK, have said that they will begin an investigation with immediate effect. I am glad to hear that. I really don't want this to become as infamous as the "Florida Hanging Chads" incident during the 2000 US presidential election. SNP leader Alex Salmond has claimed that 100,000 votes were spoilt in this election, and we have no immediate way of verifying his figures.

However, we do know that in one constituency, Airdrie and Shotts, the winning candidates majority was less than the number of spoilt ballots. In Glasgow Shettleton, there were over 2,000 spoilt ballots. These are very unusual figures that in years of covering elections, I have never seen this level of spoilt ballots.

However, the story from here on in now will be about who will form the next Scottish government. The expectation is that it will be a combination of SNP and Lib Dems with the Green and the 1 single Independent. However, that might not be the case. The Conservatives could act as kingmakers here. Labour could still manage to become the next government,and indeed, it could be possible for Labour and SNP to team up in a kind of national unity government.

What will happen, is unclear right now, but I will be following this story with much interest over the next few weeks.