This is one of the more difficult analysis I had to make. Sure, the headlines are obvious. Labour lost a lot of councillors, Lib Dems lost some too, whilst the Conservatives made major gains. But the headlines do not tell the entire story.
When the first change of council came in last night, with the Liberal Democrats gaining Kingston-upon-Hull, it did look like Labour was on course for a bit of a drubbing, but at whose hands?
When Plymouth City Council, at around 1.30am, switched completely from being a Labour run council to being a Conservative council, it was perhaps the first real indication, just what was about to happen.
There were results that made reading the signs just a little confusing at times. The West Somerset result which saw a block of independent councillors take control away from the Tories(Ind 16 - Con 13 - Lab 1 - LD 1), meant that it was not a big swathe of blue wiping everything else out, but it was a more patchy performance.
This was then later proved by the next big results. Conservatives gained Gravesham from Labour and Torbay from the Liberal Democrats, only to then lose Eastbourne to the Liberal Democrats.
For all the successes, and there were plenty of them, gaining North West Leicestershire and Lincoln from Labour and gaining Bournemouth and Windsor & Maidenhead Royal from the Lib Dems, there were just too many slip ups. Labour taking North Lincolnshire, and Lib Dems capturing Hinckley & Bosworth as well as losing control of Salisbury and Thurrock, just showed how fragile the Conservative advance actually was.
Most of the gained councils were in areas where the Conservatives were already the major party, and didn't actually need much of a gain in order to take control. If I were David Cameron, I would be worried that more gains were not made in some of the key northern areas.
Mind you, you think that Labour lost almost 500 councillors and Liberal Democrats lost almost 250 councillors, but when you realise that this is across 312 district and unitary councils, you realise that it really isn't that big of a loss.
Amongst the smaller parties, the BNP gained 1 councilor, the Greens gained 15, Liberals and UKIP both lost 1, whilst Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish nationalist party gained a councillor.
So,to summarise, a good performance from Conservatives, but not stellar, Lib Dems and Labour both had some losses, but neither really lost a lot of ground. To those who would think this is an indication that the Conservatives are heading for government, I would say this...
In 2004, Labour did do worse than this in the Local Elections, yet just a year later, they gained an historic third term in Westminster. They say a week is a long time in politics, and with possibly 3 years to go until the next General Election, well, we haven't even reached the 2 mile mark on the marathon yet!
Showing posts with label Super Thursday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Thursday. Show all posts
Friday, 4 May 2007
Super Thursday: Welsh Assembly Election Roundup
It was not such a bad night for Labour in Wales as they are still the largest party in Wales, but they will need a coalition partner to govern effectively. They did lose three seats, all to Plaid Cymru leaving them with just 26 seats.
In second came Plaid Cymru with 15 seats. Conservatives came third with 12 seats and Liberal Democrats came 4th with just 6 seats. The remaining seat was taken by an Independent who was elected 4 years ago as a Labour AM (Assembly Member)
It's interesting to note that the Conservatives gained 4 seats in the constituencies, but lost that many in the regional lists system.
The British National Party came close to winning a seat in the Welsh Assembly regional lists system, coming 5th in most lists.
Whilst the BNP news is disappointing, I will be following the development of a governing coalition in Wales. The new assembly will sit for the first time on Wednesday 9th May and Digital Satellite viewers will be able to watch proceedings on S4/C 2.
In second came Plaid Cymru with 15 seats. Conservatives came third with 12 seats and Liberal Democrats came 4th with just 6 seats. The remaining seat was taken by an Independent who was elected 4 years ago as a Labour AM (Assembly Member)
It's interesting to note that the Conservatives gained 4 seats in the constituencies, but lost that many in the regional lists system.
The British National Party came close to winning a seat in the Welsh Assembly regional lists system, coming 5th in most lists.
Whilst the BNP news is disappointing, I will be following the development of a governing coalition in Wales. The new assembly will sit for the first time on Wednesday 9th May and Digital Satellite viewers will be able to watch proceedings on S4/C 2.
Super Thursday: Scottish Parliamentary Election Roundup.
Prior to this Election, Labour was the largest party in the Scottish Parliament with 50 seats. They were the major party in a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Today, the Scottish Nationalist Party is the largest party with 47 seats, compared to Labour on 46, Conservatives on 17, Liberal Democrats on 16, Green Party on 2 and 1 Independent.
In terms of the individual constituencies, Labour won the most constituencies with 37, SNP got 21, Liberal Democrats got 11 and the Conservatives got 4. It was in the regional lists vote that the SNP and Conservatives did best. The SNP won 26 of those regionally based seats, Conservatives have 13, Labour have 9, Liberal Democrats 5, Greens 2 and 1 Independent.
Turnout across Scotland was high at 51.8%, which translates to just over 2 million votes cast.
The big story of the night will unquestionably be the high number of spoilt ballots cast in this election. It was noted on the night, by myself and the BBC's Nick Robinson that this was an unusual trend, with in one constituency, spoilt ballots making up 7.2% of the votes cast.
I note that the Electoral Commission, who oversee all elections here in the UK, have said that they will begin an investigation with immediate effect. I am glad to hear that. I really don't want this to become as infamous as the "Florida Hanging Chads" incident during the 2000 US presidential election. SNP leader Alex Salmond has claimed that 100,000 votes were spoilt in this election, and we have no immediate way of verifying his figures.
However, we do know that in one constituency, Airdrie and Shotts, the winning candidates majority was less than the number of spoilt ballots. In Glasgow Shettleton, there were over 2,000 spoilt ballots. These are very unusual figures that in years of covering elections, I have never seen this level of spoilt ballots.
However, the story from here on in now will be about who will form the next Scottish government. The expectation is that it will be a combination of SNP and Lib Dems with the Green and the 1 single Independent. However, that might not be the case. The Conservatives could act as kingmakers here. Labour could still manage to become the next government,and indeed, it could be possible for Labour and SNP to team up in a kind of national unity government.
What will happen, is unclear right now, but I will be following this story with much interest over the next few weeks.
Today, the Scottish Nationalist Party is the largest party with 47 seats, compared to Labour on 46, Conservatives on 17, Liberal Democrats on 16, Green Party on 2 and 1 Independent.
In terms of the individual constituencies, Labour won the most constituencies with 37, SNP got 21, Liberal Democrats got 11 and the Conservatives got 4. It was in the regional lists vote that the SNP and Conservatives did best. The SNP won 26 of those regionally based seats, Conservatives have 13, Labour have 9, Liberal Democrats 5, Greens 2 and 1 Independent.
Turnout across Scotland was high at 51.8%, which translates to just over 2 million votes cast.
The big story of the night will unquestionably be the high number of spoilt ballots cast in this election. It was noted on the night, by myself and the BBC's Nick Robinson that this was an unusual trend, with in one constituency, spoilt ballots making up 7.2% of the votes cast.
I note that the Electoral Commission, who oversee all elections here in the UK, have said that they will begin an investigation with immediate effect. I am glad to hear that. I really don't want this to become as infamous as the "Florida Hanging Chads" incident during the 2000 US presidential election. SNP leader Alex Salmond has claimed that 100,000 votes were spoilt in this election, and we have no immediate way of verifying his figures.
However, we do know that in one constituency, Airdrie and Shotts, the winning candidates majority was less than the number of spoilt ballots. In Glasgow Shettleton, there were over 2,000 spoilt ballots. These are very unusual figures that in years of covering elections, I have never seen this level of spoilt ballots.
However, the story from here on in now will be about who will form the next Scottish government. The expectation is that it will be a combination of SNP and Lib Dems with the Green and the 1 single Independent. However, that might not be the case. The Conservatives could act as kingmakers here. Labour could still manage to become the next government,and indeed, it could be possible for Labour and SNP to team up in a kind of national unity government.
What will happen, is unclear right now, but I will be following this story with much interest over the next few weeks.
Super Thursday: Blogging returns tonight with the Roundups
That's it for the "live blogging" tonight on this UK Super Thursday election night. I'll be back later tonight with the final roundups, analysis and some of the more interesting stories from the election.
Super Thursday: English Council Elections Analysis 1
Okay, so this time, I am focusing only on the English Council Election, and anlysing the results so far, now that we have roughly about 1/3rd of the results in.
In England, it has been a good night for the Tories. Not spectacular, but good. They have lost Salisbury, Thurrock, Eastbourne and West Somerset, but gained East Cambridgeshire, Lincoln, North Somerset, North West Leicestershire, South Ribble, Dover, Oswestry, Torbay, Gravesham, Woking, Plymouth, North Warwickshire and Chester. A lot of these gains were the result of gaining no more than 2 seats, so they can't be called spectacular, but it is a solidly upward performance.
The Liberal Democrats have managed to gain Eastbourne, Rochdale and Kingston-upon-Hull, but have also lost Torbay and St Albans. A solid performance, but not much more really than holding your own.
Labour have been on the wrong end electorally in England tonight. They haven't gained a single council and have lost Lincoln, North West Leicestershire, Blackburn with Darwen, Gravesham, Oldham and Plymouth, and 4 of those councils went straight into Tory control! Not the disaster they were expecting, but not a nice result.
In England, it has been a good night for the Tories. Not spectacular, but good. They have lost Salisbury, Thurrock, Eastbourne and West Somerset, but gained East Cambridgeshire, Lincoln, North Somerset, North West Leicestershire, South Ribble, Dover, Oswestry, Torbay, Gravesham, Woking, Plymouth, North Warwickshire and Chester. A lot of these gains were the result of gaining no more than 2 seats, so they can't be called spectacular, but it is a solidly upward performance.
The Liberal Democrats have managed to gain Eastbourne, Rochdale and Kingston-upon-Hull, but have also lost Torbay and St Albans. A solid performance, but not much more really than holding your own.
Labour have been on the wrong end electorally in England tonight. They haven't gained a single council and have lost Lincoln, North West Leicestershire, Blackburn with Darwen, Gravesham, Oldham and Plymouth, and 4 of those councils went straight into Tory control! Not the disaster they were expecting, but not a nice result.
Super Thursday: Spoilt Ballots controversy.
It seems that there has been an unusually high number of spoilt ballots in Scotland. The BBC's Nick Robinson has been blogging on this issue on the BBC's own Election Night blog.
Super Thursday: SNP gain a major target seat
Alex Salmond, the leader of the SNP, has won the seat of Gordon, defeating the incumbent Liberal Democrat candidate with a majority of 2,062. The swing from Lib Dem to SNP was 10.7%.
During his victory speech, Alex Salmond was critical of the dual system of voting in Scotland and the huge numbers of spoilt ballots that resulted. Whether this system will be regarded as a success is anyone's guess, but the high number of spoilt ballots will be an issue in the weeks and months to come.
During his victory speech, Alex Salmond was critical of the dual system of voting in Scotland and the huge numbers of spoilt ballots that resulted. Whether this system will be regarded as a success is anyone's guess, but the high number of spoilt ballots will be an issue in the weeks and months to come.
Super Thursday: State of Play at 0300 UK
Well, it may be Friday morning here in the UK now, but the results from Super Thursday continue to confuse and confound.
For the Conservatives, they have made improvements in the English council elections, gaining over 100 councillors and 5 councils, However, indications so far from Scotland and Wales show little or no sign of any improvement in their electoral fortunes.
Labour will be relieved to have not recieved a complete drubbing, managing an improvement on their disatrous results last year. It looks like they may hold onto government in Wales, but it will be nip and tuck in Scotland between them and SNP.
Liberal Democrats, have just about held their own, not improved, but they have made some gains, especially in the English council elections in terms of councils gained.
It really is a case of pick the bones out of it all, and it's not all over yet.
For the Conservatives, they have made improvements in the English council elections, gaining over 100 councillors and 5 councils, However, indications so far from Scotland and Wales show little or no sign of any improvement in their electoral fortunes.
Labour will be relieved to have not recieved a complete drubbing, managing an improvement on their disatrous results last year. It looks like they may hold onto government in Wales, but it will be nip and tuck in Scotland between them and SNP.
Liberal Democrats, have just about held their own, not improved, but they have made some gains, especially in the English council elections in terms of councils gained.
It really is a case of pick the bones out of it all, and it's not all over yet.
Super Thursday: Conservatives and Liberal Democrats swap councils
The mixed bag idea seems to be really solidifying now. As I reported earlier, the Conservatives in Torbay will have been breaking out the chilled champers for their gain from the Liberal Democrats, but I imagine their Eastbourne colleagues tipple tonight will be warm white wine, as the Conservatives there lost the council to... the Liberal Democrats.
What you gain on the swings, you lose on the roundabouts!
What you gain on the swings, you lose on the roundabouts!
Super Thursday: Big Swings in Torbay!
To be fair, this isn't that unusual for Torbay council, it has had big swings before. But it is notable, especially for the Conservatives, that this gain for them, came from yet another massive swing in the Torbay area. In 2003, the Tories had only 7 seats, they now have 23! In 2003, the Liberal Democrats had 23 seats, they now have only 9.
This is a result that the Tories wanted, and they will be in celebratory mood in Torquay tonight.
This is a result that the Tories wanted, and they will be in celebratory mood in Torquay tonight.
Super Thursday: Independents gain ground
A result that will not leave the Tories smiling tonight.
The Conservatives had control of West Somerset council going into the election, but tonight they have lost control to an Independent group of councillors. The Tories lost 4 seats there, whilst the Independents gained 6.
And another result, this time from Wales, that will leave the political machines in a rather less than euphoric state, is that an Independent has won Bleanau Gwent. The seat was previously held by Labour.
Perhaps my earlier thought about being a bad night for Independent politicians was premature.
The Conservatives had control of West Somerset council going into the election, but tonight they have lost control to an Independent group of councillors. The Tories lost 4 seats there, whilst the Independents gained 6.
And another result, this time from Wales, that will leave the political machines in a rather less than euphoric state, is that an Independent has won Bleanau Gwent. The seat was previously held by Labour.
Perhaps my earlier thought about being a bad night for Independent politicians was premature.
Super Thursday: Spoiled Ballots
In any election there will be a number of ballots that have been spoiled, this is to be expected, but there are reported concerns over the number of spoiled ballots, expecially in Scotland. In one consitituency, it was reported that 7% of the ballots cast there were in fact spoiled.
I seriously hope that this doesn't become our version of Florida's "Hanging Chads" in the 2000 presidential election.
I seriously hope that this doesn't become our version of Florida's "Hanging Chads" in the 2000 presidential election.
Super Thursday: First Welsh Assembly result
We have the first result from the Welsh Assembly election, for Islwyn. Labouor have held onto the constituency but in a strange twist, an Independent came in second there with over 6.5 thousand votes, beating Plaid Cymru, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Interesting twist!
Interesting twist!
Super Thursday: State of Play at 0200 UK
This is definitely turning into a mixed bag of results.
Labour aren't doing as badly as they feared, they have held many opposition targets, including some SNP targets in Scotland, so they should be relieved, so far.
Conservatives are improving, but perhaps not as much as they would have liked. The big swing of Plymouth City Council from a 1 seat Labour majority to a 5 seat Conservative majority is a definite highpoint for them, though.
Liberal Democrats are being attacked on both fronts and are just abouot holding their own, to maybe a slight improvement. They may have been expecting to do better.
So far, the big losers seem to be Independent politicians and the SNP, who have seen improvement in their votes, but hasn't really translated into the seats they've been looking for, yet.
Labour aren't doing as badly as they feared, they have held many opposition targets, including some SNP targets in Scotland, so they should be relieved, so far.
Conservatives are improving, but perhaps not as much as they would have liked. The big swing of Plymouth City Council from a 1 seat Labour majority to a 5 seat Conservative majority is a definite highpoint for them, though.
Liberal Democrats are being attacked on both fronts and are just abouot holding their own, to maybe a slight improvement. They may have been expecting to do better.
So far, the big losers seem to be Independent politicians and the SNP, who have seen improvement in their votes, but hasn't really translated into the seats they've been looking for, yet.
Super Thursday: Not a Good Night for Independents
It doesn't look like it pays to be an Independent politician tonight.
The Independent block in Torridge lost control of their council earlier, and just now, a smiliar Independent block in the Eden district council has also lost control of the council.
It would seem the party machines were working well this election time.
The Independent block in Torridge lost control of their council earlier, and just now, a smiliar Independent block in the Eden district council has also lost control of the council.
It would seem the party machines were working well this election time.
Super Thursday: Lib Dems Lose St Albans
This is a key result.
The Liberal Democrats have become the first political party to actually lose control of a council. They have exactly half of the 58 seats on the St Albans district council, and the other half are shared between Conservatives, Labour and 2 others.
This is not a result the Lib Dems wanted to see.
The Liberal Democrats have become the first political party to actually lose control of a council. They have exactly half of the 58 seats on the St Albans district council, and the other half are shared between Conservatives, Labour and 2 others.
This is not a result the Lib Dems wanted to see.
Super Thursday: Conservatives Gain Plymouth
As BBC1 South West opened up their update, it was with the latest news from Plymouth Guildhall, breaking at that very second, that the Conservatives have gained control of Plymouth City Council.
Plymouth as a political area is one of the very few areas where Labour have any political strength in the South West of England, which is mainly a Conservative/Liberal Democrat battleground. The fact that the Tories have taken control of the council, is quite damaging to Labour.
Plymouth as a political area is one of the very few areas where Labour have any political strength in the South West of England, which is mainly a Conservative/Liberal Democrat battleground. The fact that the Tories have taken control of the council, is quite damaging to Labour.
Super Thursday: The First Lost Council
Well, we have our first council that has gone to No Overall Control. The thing is, it is Torridge District Council in Devon, which was controlled by a large group of Independent councillors. In Torridge, there have been gains for the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and even the green Party. But, there is not one Labour councillor still in Torridge.
Super Thursday: Dundee West - SNP Gain from Labour
The first seat to change hands in the Scottish Parliament has been declared and the SNP have made their first gain from Labour in Dundee West. The majority is 1,946 and the swing from Labour to SNP comes in at 6.1%
This is a big result for the SNP. Hopefully by the end of the night, we will have an idea of how things have gone for the parties in Scotland.
This is a big result for the SNP. Hopefully by the end of the night, we will have an idea of how things have gone for the parties in Scotland.
Super Thursday: Gains and Losses
So far, the Liberal Democrats have gained two councils, Kingston-upon-Hull and Rochdale, whilst the Conservatives have gained Chester and North Warwickshire. Currently, none of the parties have lost control of any councils, which I suppose is of some comfort for Labour.
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