Sanctioning Roman Abramovich only hurts Chelsea FC

Roman Abramovich is one of seven Russian oligarchs to be added to the list of those sanctioned by the UK Government, which compared to other governments around the world, still falls way short of what is expected of them.  

However, the sanctions against him have hit a target that really doesn't deserve to be punished as it is, and that is Chelsea Football Club.  

The club can no longer sell tickets or merchandise, and it's banned from any player transfers.  It has been granted a special licence which will allow fixtures to be played, staff to be paid, and existing ticket holders, mostly season ticket holders, will be allowed to attend matches.

These measures aren't targetting or affecting Roman Abramovich, they're punishing Chelsea for being owned by him, despite the fact that he has already handed off day to day operations of the club to the trustees, and he has committed to sell the club, for which he could well be granted a special licence to do so, on the condition that he himself doesn't benefit in any way from it.

The sad part is that because of these sanctions, the club cannot get any new money into the business, and how long can that realistically continue?  Football clubs are not run on goodwill alone.

Without ticket and merchandise sales, the club cannot continue to run long term, and unless something changes very soon, this season could end up being Chelsea Football Club's last one in existence, and all because of the necessity of punishing Vladimir Putin for a war that didn't even need to happen.

Viewpoint: Trump & Republicans in full self destruct.

For a while now, we've been watching the slow and painful disintegration of both Donald Trump's regime in the White House, and the Republican Party in Congress, and wondering when exactly the final cataclysmic explosion of both was going to happen.

From reports I'm seeing online, it truly looks like we are at the beginning of what we know from the James Bond films as the big final fight that leads to the final cataclysmic explosion of the villains base, and the death of the main villain, although in this case, it's the destruction of the Trump regime and the Republican Party with them.

At this point, Trump can only count on his base to support him, and his base isn't anywhere near as big as it was.  His base now only consists of extremists on the far right of the political spectrum.  Even Moderate Republicans, along with Independents, Centrists and Democrats, are now seeing Trump for who he really is, and they don't like it either.

But the Republican Party in Congress haven't caught up with this, and they're trying their damnedest to either protect him or come up with successful distraction strategies, but they seem to be failing with both.

And what makes it worse, is that we are seeing the Trump regime revive the classic Republican trope of the circular firing squad, and try to take each other out in order to avoid getting taken out themselves.  The amount of panic in the Trump regime is growing exponentially and the net result of all this is what we are currently seeing.

In the ongoing public impeachment hearings, several Trump administration officials have repeatedly given testimony pointing to Donald Trump's guilt and that's causing mass panic in the Republican camp and in the Trump regime.  Donald Trump even managed to take over Fox & Friends on Friday morning to claim that this impeachment is going great for him, and he's looking forward to his trial in the Senate, in an hour long rant that even the hosts were feeling somewhat uncomfortable about at some points.  Then Republicans in Congress began parroting this same idea, and some people actually fell for it.

However, this was all undone by the end of the day when reports came out from inside the White House via the Washington Post and the New York Times, that Trump was "miserable" in the White House and was finding the whole situation "intolerable".  It was then further undone when Trump called Republican senators to Camp David to 'persuade them' not to convict him.  If you honestly thought that the Impeachment proceedings against you were going well for you, then why would you call your buddies from the Senate to persuade them not to convict you?  The answer of course is that you wouldn't.  So, that totally destroyed the narrative that you had set up earlier in the day.

This is just adding further hard evidence against Trump.  It shows just how corrupt he is and that he thinks he can somehow subvert the whole process.  However, he fails to recognise the underlying truth about all Republican politicians in both the House and the Senate.  That truth is that when it comes to making sure they get re-elected, the President of the United States has absolutely no say in their decisions, because it isn't about protecting him, it's about protecting themselves.  If the numbers in their state or their district say that convicting him is their only course of action, they will convict him.  It's not the extremists that win elections, it's the moderates on both sides, and the Centrists and Independents.  If a Republican thinks they can win more votes by convicting him, than by not convicting him, they will do it, and the numbers generally look like that's more likely to happen than not.

Of course this leads to the next question, which is will enough voters switch to vote for a Republican if they do convict him.  This at the moment doesn't look so clear cut, and the possibility of Republicans losing what had previously been considered to be fairly safe seats is a not insignificant one.  At the moment, there doesn't seem to be enough of a swing against the Republicans to wipe them out in the House, nor enough to ensure a clean sweep of Democrat victories in the one third of Senate seats that will be up for grabs.  But that could change, and based on what is currently happening, it's a change that could hurt Republicans even more than it already is.

For instance, there is Trump's personal lawyer, Former New York Mayor and walking 9/11 meme, Rudy Giuliani.  He's already in a boat load of trouble, and it got worse this past week, as not only were House Republicans more than ready to throw him under the bus to protect Trump, but also when it was revealed in the New York Times, that the Feds has subpoenaed a Pro-Trump Super PAC in an investigation that is about 3 people.  Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman... and Rudy Giuliani.  Parnas and Fruman are associates of Rudy's, and Parnas was even born in the Ukraine, when it was still part of the Soviet Union.  Fruman was born in Belarus, so both are immigrants, which further adds another level of hypocrisy to the Republicans' anti-immigrant stance.

Now, Super PACs rarely get subpoenaed, so this is in itself, quite a big deal.  A PAC is a Political Action Committee, which is basically a group that pools campaign contributions from its members and donates them to campaigns for candidates, or ballot initiatives, or legislation.  In the wake of the Citizens United decision, a new kind of PAC was created, known as the Super PAC.  Whilst PAC have set limits on what members can donate, Super PACs do not, and they can engage in political activity independently of the campaign they are supporting.  However they are barred from making actual contributions to candidates or parties.

Now, it seems likely that these subpoenas relate to donations to that Super PAC from foreign donors, which is illegal under US Electoral Law.  Parnas and Fruman are already in some trouble for sourcing illegal foreign campaign contributions, so it's very possible that these subpoenas might relate to funneling foreign money through the Super PAC to Donald Trump, which as I've already pointed out, Super PACs are barred from making contributions.  If this is the case, then Parnas, Fruman, Giuliani and Trump are all potentially in boiling hot water.  Parnas has even said to CNN that he's willing to testify to Congress about the roles of Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump, and Republican Representative Devin Nunes's roles in the whole Ukraine situation.  Not only could this throw both Giuliani and Trump under the bus, but it also opens up the possibility that Republican politicians in Washington are in this whole mess up to their eyeballs, and if that's the case, then that could lead to further revelations about othe Republican politicians in Washington and their connections and it could compromise the whole of the Washington Republican establishment, and that could really spell trouble for the Republican Party.

And that's the just the tip of the iceberg.  A grand jury in New York has the Trump Organisation firmly in its sights at the moment in relation to Trump's hush money scandals, and looks likely to indict not only Donald Trump himself, but also members of his family as well, on State charges, which Trump cannot pardon himself for.

Then there's Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo, who was just sold out by State Department officials, who were forced to turn over materials relating to the Ukraine situation to a court.  A judge had ordered these documents turned over before Midnight Friday.  But then it was revealed that Pompeo had leaked to the media that he was going to resign from the State Department to run for the US Senate in Kansas, which might be a pipe dream considering he too is up to his neck in the whole situation, and could well be arrested.

And there's probably a lot more that we don't yet know.  But this is very much what happens when a criminal conspiracy is unraveling before you.  Normally the best move would be to stick together, try and ride things out together.  But the old saying about there being no honour among thieves, is one that is proven true time and again, because individual players will start thinking about what will protect themselves, usually in a panicky state, and will often make the situation for themselves and everybody else in the conspiracy, because these panic moves usually backfire.

To seasoned observers of Washington politics, this is following predictable patterns of behaviour to their logical conclusion.  We've been witness to a party that has actually been slowly disintegrating since the days of Watergate, and now, we're seeing what could be the start of the final disintegration of the Republican Party as a political force, via the corrupt dealings of the Trump regime.  Something else will come along to replace it unquestionably.  This happened before in the 1860s, when the Republican Party itself emerged out of the ashes of the Whig Party in the US.  But this could be even more damaging than the Whig's self induced implosion, which didn't have a trigger for it on a scale anywhere near this big.  What would happen in the aftermath of this, is very much uncharted territory, and it will be interesting to watch it play out.  Right now though, it is kinda fun and kinda painful, to watch both the Trump regime and the Republican Party hit the self destruct button repeatedly and to see the whole situation blowup, just like watching the villain's base in the James Bond films get destroyed in explosion after explosion.

The Oil Price, Russia and OPEC.

(Transcript from The Viewpoint Podcast)

The price of oil has made a major shift downward in recent weeks, falling to around $60 a barrel for North Sea Brent Crude, and below $60 for West Texas Intermediate. For most of us, it will mean that it will cost us less to fill up our cars, and prices for the goods on our shelves should start falling because transportation will start costing less as well.

But there's much more to it than that, especially for Russia. Oil revenues are a big part of their government's income, and the drop from over $120 a barrel to around $60, means that Russia's budget, which was calculated at a higher price, will not be able to spend as much money as they previously thought. The drop in the Oil price even sent the Russian Rouble shooting up against the dollar, to almost 80 roubles to the dollar, before settling OPEC even decided not to cut production to force prices higher, and whilst most saw that as a shot across the bows of US shale oil producers, Russia's aggression against Ukraine may have also played a part as neither the US nor Russia are part of the international cartel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his usual end of year press conference this week, and like previous Soviet Premiers and dictators worldwide, blamed the West for what is happening with his economy. And whilst it's true that the West's economic sanctions have hurt Russia to some degree, OPEC's refusal to cut production of oil in order to raise the price on international commodities markets will do far more to damage the Russian economy than the west's sanctions.

And who are these OPEC members who will hurt Russia's economy so badly? Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Not a single western country in the cartel, not even the UK. Maybe Putin should get some of his Russia Today buddies to start going after Iran's Press TV.

The Idiot Brigade Awards: Monday 8th September 2014

Okay, time to give out the most coveted prizes in blogging world (not), today’s medals in the Idiot Brigade Awards.

The Bronze medal goes to Conservative MP John Redwood, for suggesting that the Scots should be banned from voting in the 2015 General Election if they vote for Independence.  John, you do realise that such an idea is pretty guaranteed to make the Scots vote for Independence, just to spite you?

The Silver medal goes to Patriarch Filaret, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, who has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin as being possessed by Satan.  You know, this is not going to help de-escalate the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, but worse than that, you actually compared him to the wrong person.  If anything, Vladimir Putin is looking more and more like George W Bush did during his second term, where all he had was his own certainty, his own beliefs, his own omniscience, and little to no connection with the real world at all. That is about all Putin has left at the moment, is his own certainty, his own omniscience, his own superiority complex, if you will.

But the Fools Gold Award winners today, are Ray Rice, The Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League, The National Football League themselves and the Commissioner of the NFL, Roger Goodell.  You may recall that Ray Rice was suspended by the NFL Commissioner for two games, after TMZ released a surveillance video tape showing Ray Race dragging his then fiancé Janay Palmer out of an elevator.  Since then, Roger Goodell and the NFL have taken a public relations pummelling over the lenient punishment.  That led to a change in policy, that was not backdated, that all domestic violence offenders would be suspended for 6 games on a first offence, and banned indefinitely on a second offence.

Today, TMZ released the ‘other video’ that the police had had all along, which showed what happened inside the elevator.  I’m not going to link to it directly, or embed it on the page, as I consider it too graphic and too violent.  But suffice to say, his actions in that elevator made the two game suspension look far worse than farcical.  It made it look utterly shameful and a complete disgrace.

Almost instantly, the Baltimore Ravens released Ray Rice, followed in equally quick succession by the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, announcing that Ray Rice was being suspended from the NFL indefinitely, and all based upon this release of the ‘new’ video, a video that both the NFL and the Baltimore Ravens deny having previously seen, but knowing how the NFL has a great working relationship with the Police, I find that whole scenario incredibly unlikely.

I have little doubt in my own mind, that they were just trying to ride it out, wait until the heat died down, and then everything would be a-ok, and they could quietly bury it.  Today, those thoughts were blown out of the water, and the speed of both organisations reactions unfortunately give away exactly what they knew.  They had to have seen the video, knew what it contained, and yet still, they tried to diminish it, by only suspending Ray Rice for 2 games.  Today’s video demonstrated that you cared as much about domestic violence, as much as you had previously cared about concussions, prior to last year’s settlement, which was not a lot.

Baltimore Ravens, if you had taken some responsibility in the first place and suspended Rice before the NFL had taken its original decision, the one that now looks incredibly ridiculous, you would have looked strong, and in command, instead of looking weak, feeble and out of touch, as you do now.

Roger Goodell, you surely don’t expect me to believe that you hadn’t seen the second videotape until now.  I find that very hard to believe.  Again, rather like the Baltimore Ravens themselves, you look weak, feeble, indecisive and out of touch with the people who matter most to you and your organisation, your fans, especially the large contingent of female fans that the NFL attracts. 

Ray Rice, the Baltimore Ravens, the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell.  Not only our Fools Gold Award winner today, but unequivocally, today’s Worst Persons In The World.