Viewpoint: Texas is now a Toss-Up!?!

This sounds unbelieveable.  Texas, a state that has been firmly Republican territory for a long time, this year, could go to the Democrats?

This seemingly wild idea, actually comes from a site that is not known for it's wild, unsubstantiated ideas.  This comes from Real Clear Politics, who are usually somewhat conservative, at least in a cultural sense, when it comes to election predictions.  By comparison, Politico, NBC News, CBS News and CNN are still firmly placing it on the Republican side, although Politico, CBS News and CNN are all saying that it's only leaning Republican right now. 

The current scorecards for the race to the White House are very interesting.  All of them have Biden leading.  Real Clear Politics makes it 222-115, with both Florida's 29 Electoral College votes, and Texas' 38 Electoral College votes up for grabs.  If Biden were to win both of those states, then Trump has no way to win.

By comparison, Politico scores it 268-203, NBC News scores it 231-201, CBS News 248-188, and CNN scores it 232-205.  As of writing this, neither ABC News or FOX News currently have a scorecard for the race to the White House. 

It would be completely shocking, if the Democrats did indeed take Texas, even by just a handful of votes.  The Republican Party losing their single biggest block of Electoral College votes?  To many of us seasoned political observers, it seems to be anything from unlikely to impossible.  But Politico have noticed something.

In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points.  In 2016, Trump won it by just 9 points.  It's getting closer and closer.  Currently, Real Clear Politics has it listed as a tie for this year at 45% each on their polling average, but that just means that right now, it's too close to call, which considering Texas' history as a Republican and their one reliable source for a big pile of Electoral College votes, the fact that it could, just could go to the Democrats, will shake everything up if that happens.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Viewpoint: Trump & Republicans in full self destruct.

For a while now, we've been watching the slow and painful disintegration of both Donald Trump's regime in the White House, and the Republican Party in Congress, and wondering when exactly the final cataclysmic explosion of both was going to happen.

From reports I'm seeing online, it truly looks like we are at the beginning of what we know from the James Bond films as the big final fight that leads to the final cataclysmic explosion of the villains base, and the death of the main villain, although in this case, it's the destruction of the Trump regime and the Republican Party with them.

At this point, Trump can only count on his base to support him, and his base isn't anywhere near as big as it was.  His base now only consists of extremists on the far right of the political spectrum.  Even Moderate Republicans, along with Independents, Centrists and Democrats, are now seeing Trump for who he really is, and they don't like it either.

But the Republican Party in Congress haven't caught up with this, and they're trying their damnedest to either protect him or come up with successful distraction strategies, but they seem to be failing with both.

And what makes it worse, is that we are seeing the Trump regime revive the classic Republican trope of the circular firing squad, and try to take each other out in order to avoid getting taken out themselves.  The amount of panic in the Trump regime is growing exponentially and the net result of all this is what we are currently seeing.

In the ongoing public impeachment hearings, several Trump administration officials have repeatedly given testimony pointing to Donald Trump's guilt and that's causing mass panic in the Republican camp and in the Trump regime.  Donald Trump even managed to take over Fox & Friends on Friday morning to claim that this impeachment is going great for him, and he's looking forward to his trial in the Senate, in an hour long rant that even the hosts were feeling somewhat uncomfortable about at some points.  Then Republicans in Congress began parroting this same idea, and some people actually fell for it.

However, this was all undone by the end of the day when reports came out from inside the White House via the Washington Post and the New York Times, that Trump was "miserable" in the White House and was finding the whole situation "intolerable".  It was then further undone when Trump called Republican senators to Camp David to 'persuade them' not to convict him.  If you honestly thought that the Impeachment proceedings against you were going well for you, then why would you call your buddies from the Senate to persuade them not to convict you?  The answer of course is that you wouldn't.  So, that totally destroyed the narrative that you had set up earlier in the day.

This is just adding further hard evidence against Trump.  It shows just how corrupt he is and that he thinks he can somehow subvert the whole process.  However, he fails to recognise the underlying truth about all Republican politicians in both the House and the Senate.  That truth is that when it comes to making sure they get re-elected, the President of the United States has absolutely no say in their decisions, because it isn't about protecting him, it's about protecting themselves.  If the numbers in their state or their district say that convicting him is their only course of action, they will convict him.  It's not the extremists that win elections, it's the moderates on both sides, and the Centrists and Independents.  If a Republican thinks they can win more votes by convicting him, than by not convicting him, they will do it, and the numbers generally look like that's more likely to happen than not.

Of course this leads to the next question, which is will enough voters switch to vote for a Republican if they do convict him.  This at the moment doesn't look so clear cut, and the possibility of Republicans losing what had previously been considered to be fairly safe seats is a not insignificant one.  At the moment, there doesn't seem to be enough of a swing against the Republicans to wipe them out in the House, nor enough to ensure a clean sweep of Democrat victories in the one third of Senate seats that will be up for grabs.  But that could change, and based on what is currently happening, it's a change that could hurt Republicans even more than it already is.

For instance, there is Trump's personal lawyer, Former New York Mayor and walking 9/11 meme, Rudy Giuliani.  He's already in a boat load of trouble, and it got worse this past week, as not only were House Republicans more than ready to throw him under the bus to protect Trump, but also when it was revealed in the New York Times, that the Feds has subpoenaed a Pro-Trump Super PAC in an investigation that is about 3 people.  Lev Parnas, Igor Fruman... and Rudy Giuliani.  Parnas and Fruman are associates of Rudy's, and Parnas was even born in the Ukraine, when it was still part of the Soviet Union.  Fruman was born in Belarus, so both are immigrants, which further adds another level of hypocrisy to the Republicans' anti-immigrant stance.

Now, Super PACs rarely get subpoenaed, so this is in itself, quite a big deal.  A PAC is a Political Action Committee, which is basically a group that pools campaign contributions from its members and donates them to campaigns for candidates, or ballot initiatives, or legislation.  In the wake of the Citizens United decision, a new kind of PAC was created, known as the Super PAC.  Whilst PAC have set limits on what members can donate, Super PACs do not, and they can engage in political activity independently of the campaign they are supporting.  However they are barred from making actual contributions to candidates or parties.

Now, it seems likely that these subpoenas relate to donations to that Super PAC from foreign donors, which is illegal under US Electoral Law.  Parnas and Fruman are already in some trouble for sourcing illegal foreign campaign contributions, so it's very possible that these subpoenas might relate to funneling foreign money through the Super PAC to Donald Trump, which as I've already pointed out, Super PACs are barred from making contributions.  If this is the case, then Parnas, Fruman, Giuliani and Trump are all potentially in boiling hot water.  Parnas has even said to CNN that he's willing to testify to Congress about the roles of Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump, and Republican Representative Devin Nunes's roles in the whole Ukraine situation.  Not only could this throw both Giuliani and Trump under the bus, but it also opens up the possibility that Republican politicians in Washington are in this whole mess up to their eyeballs, and if that's the case, then that could lead to further revelations about othe Republican politicians in Washington and their connections and it could compromise the whole of the Washington Republican establishment, and that could really spell trouble for the Republican Party.

And that's the just the tip of the iceberg.  A grand jury in New York has the Trump Organisation firmly in its sights at the moment in relation to Trump's hush money scandals, and looks likely to indict not only Donald Trump himself, but also members of his family as well, on State charges, which Trump cannot pardon himself for.

Then there's Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo, who was just sold out by State Department officials, who were forced to turn over materials relating to the Ukraine situation to a court.  A judge had ordered these documents turned over before Midnight Friday.  But then it was revealed that Pompeo had leaked to the media that he was going to resign from the State Department to run for the US Senate in Kansas, which might be a pipe dream considering he too is up to his neck in the whole situation, and could well be arrested.

And there's probably a lot more that we don't yet know.  But this is very much what happens when a criminal conspiracy is unraveling before you.  Normally the best move would be to stick together, try and ride things out together.  But the old saying about there being no honour among thieves, is one that is proven true time and again, because individual players will start thinking about what will protect themselves, usually in a panicky state, and will often make the situation for themselves and everybody else in the conspiracy, because these panic moves usually backfire.

To seasoned observers of Washington politics, this is following predictable patterns of behaviour to their logical conclusion.  We've been witness to a party that has actually been slowly disintegrating since the days of Watergate, and now, we're seeing what could be the start of the final disintegration of the Republican Party as a political force, via the corrupt dealings of the Trump regime.  Something else will come along to replace it unquestionably.  This happened before in the 1860s, when the Republican Party itself emerged out of the ashes of the Whig Party in the US.  But this could be even more damaging than the Whig's self induced implosion, which didn't have a trigger for it on a scale anywhere near this big.  What would happen in the aftermath of this, is very much uncharted territory, and it will be interesting to watch it play out.  Right now though, it is kinda fun and kinda painful, to watch both the Trump regime and the Republican Party hit the self destruct button repeatedly and to see the whole situation blowup, just like watching the villain's base in the James Bond films get destroyed in explosion after explosion.

My "Countdown" of today's top stories.

In homage to Keith Olbermann, who has filed a lawsuit against Current TV for wrongful termination, I present to you my "Countdown" of the top stories.  So I suppose I ought to begin with the immortal words...

...Which of these stories will you be talking about tomorrow?

5: George Zimmerman's lawyers and a forensic audio expert, both claim that Zimmerman used the word "punks" on that now infamous cellphone call.  CNN aired the "cleaned-up" audio, which if I'm honest, as an audio man myself, didn't sound that different to the original, but on listening back to it myself, I can't hear the word punk.  What I do distinctly detect is an "ooo" sound, that might come from a particular racial slur, and that "ooo" sound definitely is not present when you pronounce the word "punk".  Listen to it yourself, and see if you agree.



4: Sky News has become the latest part of the NewsCorp clan to have been caught up in hacking.  Now we know why James Murdoch resigned this week.  Sky News today confirmed that two email accounts, one belonging to a suspected paedophile,and one belonging to 'canoe man' John Darwin were hacked.  Both resulted in information that was passed onto the police.  Sky News claimed the hacking was done in the public interest, but hacking emails is a crime under the Computer Misuse Act, and that act does NOT have a public interest defence attached to it.

With Ofcom investigating British Sky Broadcasting, there is a number of possibilities now rearing their heads, and I'll talk about them in a future post.

3: Rick Santorum obviously doesn't know when to quit, or indeed how to lose with good grace.  The Republican Party establishment has been telling him to leave the race, but Santorum, much like Newt Gingrich, has stuck two fingers up to the establishment.  And he met with supporters to discuss the way forward. 

Mathematically, it's getting beyond the realms of possibility, especially given that the only remaining state with a winner takes all race, California, looks like a certainty for Mitt Romney.  But it does appear right now that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are both in line for a fairly major Republican Party smackdown, before we get to Tampa, maybe even before we get to the end of the primary process. 

2: Is it ethical for a journalist to express their own political viewpoints through signing a petition?  Apparently, some TV stations in Milwaukee don't think it is.  WTMJ, WISN and WITI have confirmed that journalists on their payrolls have signed the recall petition against controversial Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.  WTMJ went as far as to say that they took this matter seriously and would be dealing with it internally.  Apparently, one of the people who signed the petition was an on-air anchor at WTMJ.

One thing is for certain, Scott Walker has done incredible damage to Wisconsin.  Any attempt by these stations to censure their staff for signing the petition would be a direct contravention of the First Amendment.  And no news station, no matter how good their checks and balances are, could ever claim to be totally unbiased.

1: Current maybe now being sued by Keith Olbermann, but they may soon have bigger problems.  A report from Reuters indicates that Current needs to hit ratings benchmarks every quarter.  Should they miss those benchmarks two quarters in a row, they could be dropped by Time Warner Cable.  So far they have not missed those benchmarks, thanks to Keith Olbermann, but with his sudden departure last week, Current's ability to hit those benchmarks consitently maybe in doubt.

Ron Paul on Face The Nation

Strange to hear a Republican admit that 9/11 was the fault of the US Government.

Viewpoint - NY 23: Conservatism's first big election breakthrough?

In New York, a special election for the House of Representatives has garnered a lot of attention.  Ian Beaumont analyses developments.

Viewpoint – Republican sour grapes

A Republican I can agree with… almost!

The video you see below is Republican Congressman Peter King on New York, and he’s talking about the way the media has treated the Michael Jackson story.  Now, I can agree with almost every word he says, but there just a few I can’t agree with.  Look at the video and can you guess which ones I can’t agree with?

 

So, any guesses?

 

The words are “low-life”, “pervert”, “child molester”, “paedophile”. 

Michael Jackson was NEVER convicted of child molestation or paedophilia.  Now, if Peter King had used words such as “celebrity”, “singer” or “superstar”, then I could have agreed with him 100%.  Being the TruthSeeker isn’t something I am for show, it is something that pervades every ounce of my being.  Factual accuracy has to be at 100%, 100% of the time.  It may well be that Peter King believes Jackson was guilty, like many others believe OJ Simpson was guilty of murder, but like OJ, he wasn’t convicted, so he should have tempered his opinions with words like “I think”, “I believe”, “in my opinion”, you get the picture.  But no, Peter King used those words as though they were fact, recorded history, truth, undeniable.  So, Peter King gets +50% on the TruthSeekerMeter, which rates a “partially true”

Newsbusters highlights “ultra secret website”!!! Nice story, shame about the facts.

Newsbusters, the Media Research Center blog that constantly busts news, that the rest of us would like to see unbusted and unbiased, spins another one out of control, by highlighting a story on politico.com about a website where journalists meet to discuss things off the record.  Newsbusters however, manages to make it sound like some secret, left-wing plotting cabal, ultra secret, website that is so hush hush you’re not supposed to even know it exists.

So, if that were the case, why did anybody even agree to talk about it???

Jeffrey Toobin of the New York Times has the quote of the article here saying that the list is probably in “…general agreement about the stupidity of today’s GOP…”  Yeah, I think that’s something everybody, except current GOP members it seems, can agree on, and with proof like this Newsbusters article, I wonder how the GOP can even possibly argue their way out of this one.

Dick Cheney shows up the failure of Conservative-Republicanism.

The Republican Party as of late seems to resemble a circular firing squad.  Even when they're aiming at the opposition, they do a "Dick Cheney" and hit their own men.  But now, the original has decided to add his bullets into the mix, and despite being aimed at US President Barack Obama, he manages to only shoot the Republicans collectively in the foot.

He appeared on CNN's State of the Union with John King, and proceeded to demonstrate yet again why the Republican Party not only lost both in 2006, and 2008, and why it will continue to lose until it disengages itself from rabid right wing conservatives like Rush "Limburger" Limbaugh.

"Limburger" and his fellow right wing talk show hosts, such as Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly and Glenn Beck, are the public face of the GOP right now.  And Ugh!!! What a revolting face it is.  And the likes of Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, John McCain and Lindsay Graham, do nothing to improve the public face of Republicanism.  In fact, if anything, they've actually managed to make it look worse now, than at election time back in November 2008.  Add into that mix, the new, and perhaps soon to be evicted, RNC Chairman Michael Steele, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt "Gingrinch" Gingrich, and a few others, and you have the political equivalent of a mass of bird poop!

The "circular firing squad" description that has become prevalent over the last couple of weeks, is very apt, but in some ways, doesn't do the situation real justice.  On top of this, you have moderate republicans, and rabid conservatives fighting for what is left, of the soul of the party, after "Emperor" Cheney and "Darth" Bush basically tore it out.  It's not just random shots being fired, it's an ideological battle, between unmoveable, unshakeable, unfathomable conservatism, which believes it is right, and everybody else is wrong, even the majority, and the more moderate republicans who have read the tea leaves correctly and realise that the centre ground NEEDS to be retaken in order to make the party electable again, and believe that conservatism will ultimately destroy the party.

Perhaps the conservative movement should get behind their own parties.  They have two of them after all.  The American Conservative Party, and the Conservative Party of the United States of America.  Why tack themselves onto the Republican Party?

The answer of course is simple.  The conservative movement, knows full well that it cannot run and win under its own banner.  Therefore, they tack themselves onto the more moderate Republican banner to become winners.  They think that by doing that, the public won't notice that Conservatism, and Republicanism, aren't necessarily the same thing.  The only time they go against that meme is a time like now when by linking the two, they've brought the Republican Party down badly, so they try to highlight the fact that Republicanism and Conservatism are different agendas.  Sorry guys, but you can't have it both ways!

At this point in time, it's difficult to see how the Republican Party can come back into electability, because right now, it looks like it's heading further and further out towards the extremities, and as the UK's Conservative Party proved from 1997 until recently, heading back to your base is a sure fire way to make yourself unelectable.

One of the benefits of the Internet.

One of the great things that I find about the internet these days is that it allows you to look back in time to a degree and see just how right or wrong we have been.

Back on December 17th 2006, at the end of another edition of Face The Nation on CBS, Bob Schieffer talked about Evan Bayh, a senator from Indiana. Unfortunately, there's no video, but we do have a complete transcript.

Evan Bayh is a well-regarded, two-term Senator from Indiana but he is not exactly a household name. So when he announced two weeks ago that he was thinking about running for the Democratic presidential nomination, even he knew it was a long shot.

He acknowledged it was a David-versus-Goliath kind of thing, but he remembered that David did pretty well.

True enough, but yesterday Bayh realized why the smart money is usually on the giants — because they are giants — and he quit the race as quickly as he had entered.

"Whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I'm just not the right David, I concluded the odds were longer than I felt I could possibly pursue," he said.

In other words, he took a look, realized he had no chance and decided not to waste his time or the country's.

How refreshing! None of this "I decided I wanted to spend more time with my family," or the catalogue of excuses we've come to expect from usual wanna-bes — or even worse, one of those ego trip campaigns that all involved know is headed nowhere except to get some TV time for the candidate.

Bayh just concluded it wasn't to be and said so.

The one downside is, that is just the kind of straight talk we need more of in politics.

A man so candid about himself and his chances might have had some interesting thoughts on other subjects. In a way, I'm sorry we won't get to hear them.

In a way, what Bob wanted to happen has happened, because Barack Obama has been refreshingly straight when it comes to politics during this 2008 campaign. Now as we approach the time of his inauguration as President, we as citizens of the world, would like to see more politicians be this refeshingly honest and candid.

We haven't seen too much of it from the Republican Party, and something tells me we won't see much honesty from them.

Big Surprise! Another Republican under investigation.

ABC News is reporting that Republican Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska is under investigation by both the FBI and IRS.

Another story of Republican political corruption that Fox News will probably gloss over. But you can guarantee that they wouldn't do that if it was a Democrat being investigated. It would be all over every programme they could.

Fox News = Al Qaeda!!!

Daily Kos and Crooks and Liars both have this story, but Daily Kos has the funnier angle!

Since, Fox News is the official Republican party/Bush administration news channel, and since Fox News = Al Qaeda, does that mean the Bush administration is fighting itself???