This sounds unbelieveable. Texas, a state that has been firmly Republican territory for a long time, this year, could go to the Democrats?
This seemingly wild idea, actually comes from a site that is not known for it's wild, unsubstantiated ideas. This comes from Real Clear Politics, who are usually somewhat conservative, at least in a cultural sense, when it comes to election predictions. By comparison, Politico, NBC News, CBS News and CNN are still firmly placing it on the Republican side, although Politico, CBS News and CNN are all saying that it's only leaning Republican right now.
The current scorecards for the race to the White House are very interesting. All of them have Biden leading. Real Clear Politics makes it 222-115, with both Florida's 29 Electoral College votes, and Texas' 38 Electoral College votes up for grabs. If Biden were to win both of those states, then Trump has no way to win.
By comparison, Politico scores it 268-203, NBC News scores it 231-201, CBS News 248-188, and CNN scores it 232-205. As of writing this, neither ABC News or FOX News currently have a scorecard for the race to the White House.
It would be completely shocking, if the Democrats did indeed take Texas, even by just a handful of votes. The Republican Party losing their single biggest block of Electoral College votes? To many of us seasoned political observers, it seems to be anything from unlikely to impossible. But Politico have noticed something.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points. In 2016, Trump won it by just 9 points. It's getting closer and closer. Currently, Real Clear Politics has it listed as a tie for this year at 45% each on their polling average, but that just means that right now, it's too close to call, which considering Texas' history as a Republican and their one reliable source for a big pile of Electoral College votes, the fact that it could, just could go to the Democrats, will shake everything up if that happens. We'll just have to wait and see.
Showing posts with label US President. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US President. Show all posts
Tuesday, 14 July 2020
Saturday, 3 November 2012
US Election Analysis and Coverage.
This election cycle in the US has been the most divided and one of the closest in recent memory, certainly the closest since 2000. But an improving economy and the most unwelcome of October surprises in Hurricane Sandy, handled brilliantly by President Obama, may have swung the election away from Mitt Romney. Obama had the easier path to 270 anyway this year, and Mitt Romney looks like he has had just too much to do to turn it round.
However, don't expect the declaration of the winner to be made by 11pm ET / 4am GMT. This will be a lot closer than the 365 to 173 electoral college votes that we saw in 2008. Indeed, it's quite possible that Mitt Romney may get more votes overall, but lose the election due to the particular quirks of the US election system. I am fully expecting the declaration of the winner, to come after Midnight ET, maybe closer to 1am ET.
However, just as interesting as the final result, is just how many people will vote for the third party candidates, as two debates featuring only the 3rd party candidates have aired or are about to air on RT America, one of those debates was actually produced by online TV operation Ora TV with Larry King, former CNN host moderating. RT America can be seen by over 50 million people in the US, which is still far less than CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, who can all be seen by at least 200 million people, but still means that candidates that have not been seen on more mainstream media outlets, have gotten more exposure this time around than in previous years.
Also, likely to possibly change things around a bit this year, is the Occupy movement, which the right wing media have done their best to downplay or ignore, calling it a spent force or a dead movement. Now, by contrast, nobody has refered to the Tea Party movement on the Republican side as a spent force, which says to me that the Republicans are genuinely scared of how the Occupy movement could have a major impact on the political scene, especially after the movement changed the discussion framework of the debate on government spending in the US in 2011.
Another factor that could be an issue is Roseanne Barr. Whilst the actress and comedienne was unsuccessful in getting nominated for the Green Party, she has used her twitter feed to actively campaign on Green Party issues, to her over 174,000 followers. It does mean that we are in for a much more interesting time in this election cycle, rather than just who's gonna win. With Ron Paul backing Gary Johnson, the Libertarian party candidate, it will mean that there are more stories in this election than in 2008. The only story in 2008, was how much Barack Obama would win by, it was that obvious.
There will be a lot of coverage of course, on TV and radio, across the world, as this story has global impact. In the UK, the BBC will have coverage on both radio and television. Radio 5 Live will start the ball rolling at 10pm GMT / 5pm ET, with Richard Bacon hosting coverage for 8 hours, with 5 Live Breakfast taking over at 6am. Radio 4 will also have coverage, anchored by James Naughtie and Bridget Kendall, until 6am when the Today programme will continue the coverage. BBC1 and BBC News Channel will have coverage starting at 11.35pm, and continuing into Breakfast. Outside of the BBC, ITV is anchoring its own coverage also starting at 11.35pm and going on into Daybreak. Commercial radio however, doesn't seem to be covering it outside of news bulletins. LBC, the UK's only news/talk station, has no speciall coverage planned as I write this, although I expect the overnight hosts will talk about it, with a full roundup expected in The Morning News with Susan Bookbinder at 6.30am.
Satellite viewers can expect to find a lot of coverage. One of the more unexpected sources this time is PBS America, who are airing the live PBS NewsHour coverage from Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, starting at 11pm GMT and going on until at least 5am. Sky News are starting their coverage at 10.30pm, and going on until 9am. Bloomberg's coverage starts at Midnight and runs until 5am. CNBC is providing their own coverage after the live NBC Nightly News at 11.30pm, and the coverage goes on until 7am. Al Jazeera's coverage runs from 9pm to 7am, whilst FOX News Channel's coverage starts at 11pm and goes on until 10am. But CNN International take the award for the most coverage, starting off at 11am, including a special hour long edition of Amanpour at 8pm, switching to a simulcast of CNN USA at 9pm until 7am, when they resume coverage until 3pm, when they switch to a modified normal schedule, with an additional hour of International Desk at 5pm. Although Piers Morgan Tonight is scheduled for 11pm, I expect that to be replaced with an edition of World Report from Hong Kong.
Over in Ireland, TV coverage is the order of the night, as radio seems to be giving live overnight coverage a wide berth. Neither RTE Radio 1 nor NewsTalk have any scheduled coverage outside of daytime and news bulletins. NewsTalk's George Hook is presenting his drivetime programme, The Right Hook, from America all week, but there is no overnight coverage scheduled. On television RTE 1 has their own anchored coverage from 11.35pm until 3am, then they join CBS News for their coverage at 3am, switch to EuroNews at 7am, before RTE return to their own anchored coverage at 8am until 9.40am.
TV3 on the other hand, are doing something weird. Undoubtedly, the story will feature in the regularly scheduled Tonight with Vincent Brown at 11pm. TV3 will join CNN's live coverage at 2am until Ireland AM starts at 7am. However, betweem Midnight and 2am, TV3 are showing Psychic Readings Live. I don't need to be psychic to know that TV3 will basically have given RTE the ratings victory in that timeslot. Also, Ireland AM is not known for its news coverage, so that could be an interesting programme.
As we get closer to Election Day in the US, I will be finding out more about how other broadcasters around the world will be covering the story, and I will update the blog with those details as I find them. Also, if I get any word on internet streams of coverage, and I expect there to be such streams from Politico and Democracy Now amongst others, then I'll bring that information to you as well. On the night, I myself will be live tweeting on @cityprod. It should be a fascinating night.
However, don't expect the declaration of the winner to be made by 11pm ET / 4am GMT. This will be a lot closer than the 365 to 173 electoral college votes that we saw in 2008. Indeed, it's quite possible that Mitt Romney may get more votes overall, but lose the election due to the particular quirks of the US election system. I am fully expecting the declaration of the winner, to come after Midnight ET, maybe closer to 1am ET.
However, just as interesting as the final result, is just how many people will vote for the third party candidates, as two debates featuring only the 3rd party candidates have aired or are about to air on RT America, one of those debates was actually produced by online TV operation Ora TV with Larry King, former CNN host moderating. RT America can be seen by over 50 million people in the US, which is still far less than CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, who can all be seen by at least 200 million people, but still means that candidates that have not been seen on more mainstream media outlets, have gotten more exposure this time around than in previous years.
Also, likely to possibly change things around a bit this year, is the Occupy movement, which the right wing media have done their best to downplay or ignore, calling it a spent force or a dead movement. Now, by contrast, nobody has refered to the Tea Party movement on the Republican side as a spent force, which says to me that the Republicans are genuinely scared of how the Occupy movement could have a major impact on the political scene, especially after the movement changed the discussion framework of the debate on government spending in the US in 2011.
Another factor that could be an issue is Roseanne Barr. Whilst the actress and comedienne was unsuccessful in getting nominated for the Green Party, she has used her twitter feed to actively campaign on Green Party issues, to her over 174,000 followers. It does mean that we are in for a much more interesting time in this election cycle, rather than just who's gonna win. With Ron Paul backing Gary Johnson, the Libertarian party candidate, it will mean that there are more stories in this election than in 2008. The only story in 2008, was how much Barack Obama would win by, it was that obvious.
There will be a lot of coverage of course, on TV and radio, across the world, as this story has global impact. In the UK, the BBC will have coverage on both radio and television. Radio 5 Live will start the ball rolling at 10pm GMT / 5pm ET, with Richard Bacon hosting coverage for 8 hours, with 5 Live Breakfast taking over at 6am. Radio 4 will also have coverage, anchored by James Naughtie and Bridget Kendall, until 6am when the Today programme will continue the coverage. BBC1 and BBC News Channel will have coverage starting at 11.35pm, and continuing into Breakfast. Outside of the BBC, ITV is anchoring its own coverage also starting at 11.35pm and going on into Daybreak. Commercial radio however, doesn't seem to be covering it outside of news bulletins. LBC, the UK's only news/talk station, has no speciall coverage planned as I write this, although I expect the overnight hosts will talk about it, with a full roundup expected in The Morning News with Susan Bookbinder at 6.30am.
Satellite viewers can expect to find a lot of coverage. One of the more unexpected sources this time is PBS America, who are airing the live PBS NewsHour coverage from Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, starting at 11pm GMT and going on until at least 5am. Sky News are starting their coverage at 10.30pm, and going on until 9am. Bloomberg's coverage starts at Midnight and runs until 5am. CNBC is providing their own coverage after the live NBC Nightly News at 11.30pm, and the coverage goes on until 7am. Al Jazeera's coverage runs from 9pm to 7am, whilst FOX News Channel's coverage starts at 11pm and goes on until 10am. But CNN International take the award for the most coverage, starting off at 11am, including a special hour long edition of Amanpour at 8pm, switching to a simulcast of CNN USA at 9pm until 7am, when they resume coverage until 3pm, when they switch to a modified normal schedule, with an additional hour of International Desk at 5pm. Although Piers Morgan Tonight is scheduled for 11pm, I expect that to be replaced with an edition of World Report from Hong Kong.
Over in Ireland, TV coverage is the order of the night, as radio seems to be giving live overnight coverage a wide berth. Neither RTE Radio 1 nor NewsTalk have any scheduled coverage outside of daytime and news bulletins. NewsTalk's George Hook is presenting his drivetime programme, The Right Hook, from America all week, but there is no overnight coverage scheduled. On television RTE 1 has their own anchored coverage from 11.35pm until 3am, then they join CBS News for their coverage at 3am, switch to EuroNews at 7am, before RTE return to their own anchored coverage at 8am until 9.40am.
TV3 on the other hand, are doing something weird. Undoubtedly, the story will feature in the regularly scheduled Tonight with Vincent Brown at 11pm. TV3 will join CNN's live coverage at 2am until Ireland AM starts at 7am. However, betweem Midnight and 2am, TV3 are showing Psychic Readings Live. I don't need to be psychic to know that TV3 will basically have given RTE the ratings victory in that timeslot. Also, Ireland AM is not known for its news coverage, so that could be an interesting programme.
As we get closer to Election Day in the US, I will be finding out more about how other broadcasters around the world will be covering the story, and I will update the blog with those details as I find them. Also, if I get any word on internet streams of coverage, and I expect there to be such streams from Politico and Democracy Now amongst others, then I'll bring that information to you as well. On the night, I myself will be live tweeting on @cityprod. It should be a fascinating night.
Thursday, 10 September 2009
Obama’s address to Congress: The real keys.
Okay, here is the key points from President Barack Obama’s address to a special joint session of Congress.
1. Obama proposes that his healthcare reform plan will be deficit-neutral. In other words, it will not add one cent to the US national deficit.
2. If you already have health insurance, you will NOT be forced to change your plan. I repeat, you will NOT be forced to change your plan.
3. Under Obama’s plan, it will be against the law for coverage to be denied because of a pre-existing condition.
4. Under Obama’s plan, insurance companies will not be able to drop coverage or water it down when you get ill.
5. A new insurance exchange will be created for those who change jobs, lose their jobs, and for small business owners.
6. Tax credits will be provided to those who are most struggling to afford health insurance.
7. All individuals will be required to have basic health insurance, in the same way that all drivers are required to have car insurance.
8. The Public Insurance option must be self sufficient like any other business, and rely on the premiums they collect.
9. Not one dollar of Medicare money will be used to pay for health reform.
10. Medicare will be protected.
Those are the main points of an almost 60 minute long speech, interupted many times by standing ovations from the left and the right.
I hate to say it, but knowing the Republican speech was actually written days in advance, long before we knew what was in President Obama’s speech, did seem to render it somewhat meaningless. The fact that someone, we believe a Republican, shouted out “You lie!” at one point, obviously pointed out that some people in Congress have no intention of accepting any reform, even though the President said accepting the status quo is not an option.
This was a good speech, but I do wonder if the partisanship we have seen over the past month can be put to one side, and politicians actually do what they were elected to do, and that is to solve the real problems that America and the world faces.
Wednesday, 6 June 2007
Fox News Channel = National Enquirer + Weekly World News!!!
Raw Story has a great story about a Fox News Political Analyst, Tammy Bruce, who claimed that she wanted to find "...the space aliens that kidnapped the President I grew to admire after September 11 and left this tool behind..."
I'm not kidding! There's video to prove it too.
I'm not kidding! There's video to prove it too.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)