A companion blog to the radio show, and a dose of life, the universe... and other strangeness!
Sunday, 18 March 2012
Puerto Rico goes to Romney
The greater the delegate lead that Mitt Romney has, the less likely it looks that Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul can pull off the amount of delegates required. In fact, Mitt Romeny is on course, based upon the numbers of delegates won so far, to reach 1215 delegates, 71 over the winning line.
Rick Santorum, needs 2/3rds of the remaining delegates to win, and in this contest, that is looking more and more unlikely.
This race is to all intents and purposes, Mitt Romney's to lose. But it doesn't seem likely that he will.
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
USA 2012: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii, American Samoa
Despite winning the vote in the two states with the most delegates at stake last night, Rick Santorum has not gained much ground on Mitt Romney. Here's how the figures look today.
Alabama was the state that Santorum won most comfortably, with 34.5% of the vote, against Newt Gingrich in 2nd with 29.3% and Mitt Romney coming 3rd with 29.0%. However in the current delegate count, that only gives Santorum 18 more delegates, with Gingrich getting 12 and Romney 11. 9 delegates at this stage are unallocated. That only gives Santorum a net gain of 7 delegates.
In Mississippi it was much closer, with Santorum getting 32.9% with Gingrich getting 31.3% and Romney getting 30.3%. Which means that in the delegate count, Santorum gets 13, Gingrich 12 and Romney 12. 3 delegates were unallocated. So only a net gain of 1 delegate for Santorum. Total net gain, in the biggest states that were up for grabs last night, 8 delegates.
And that gain is pretty much wiped out from Hawaii. There Mitt Romney won handily, with 45.4% of the vote, Rick Santorum coming second with 25.3% and Ron Paul coming in third with 18.3%. In the delegate count, this means Romney got 9 delegates, Santorum 4 and Ron Paul 1. 6 delegates remain unallocated. That result cuts Santorum's net gain down to just 3 delegates.
And CNN reported that Mitt Romney also won the caucus in American Samoa, which would be another 6 delegates, and 3 more unallocated, though this has yet to be confirmed.
According to Politico, the delegate count is now Romney 463, Santorum 247, Gingrich 127, Paul 47. 100 delegates remain unallocated.
Sunday sees Puerto Rico going to their polls for 20 at large delegates and 3 RNC delegates, winner takes all. Santorum I understand is going to spend two days there to try to win the territory. But I would expect Romney to win this. Which then leads us to next Tuesday and Illinois, which has a large 69 delegate count up for grabs.
With Newt Gingrich not getting any wins last night, especially in his favoured Southern states, he really needs to ask himself if he has a way to the nomination. It seems that Santorum and Gingrich are banking on a brokered convention. But unless the convention goes with the candidate that has the most delegates, any other candidate is going to seem incredibly weak, espeically if they haven't been a part of the process. I can't see anybody other than Mitt Romney being the nominee. The way the states line up, and the fact that California on June 5th is 172 delegates, winner takes all, which I seriously think is one of Romney's states, I just can't see how either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrinch are going to look like anything else other than also-rans the whole way.
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Alabama and Mississippi Primaries tonight.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are behind in the delegate race, as is Ron Paul, but we know that Ron Paul is not interested in getting the nomination, but in taking the Republican party away from social conservatism, which moderates and independents do not support.
Mitt Romney needs another 713 delegates out of the remaining 1491. That's about 48%. Rick Santorum needs 932 delegates, or 62.5% of the remaining delegates. Newt Gingrich needs 1041 delegates or 70% of the remaining delegates. Because most of the remianing states assign delegates proportionally, the chances for Santorum and Gingrich to make up the required number of delegates is shrinking down to a very small chance. I'd say both of them have two chances, dogs chance and no chance at all.
And Gingrich has put all his eggs into these two baskets. If he doesn't win both states, he will unquestionably leave the race. But whether this actually benefits Rick Santorum or not is open for debate. Yes, the arguement has been that Newt Gingrich + Rick Santorums vote counts in several states would have taken those states away from Mitt Romney, but it does seem that it is almost too late for that to be a major factor anymore. Romney is the leader in the delegate count, the only count that really matters.
Oh and currently, there are 82 unassigned delegates, who will probably go to Mitt Romney anyway, or whoever has the most number of delegates at the end of this. I cannot see any of these currently unpledged delegates going any other way than to the candidate that will have the most delegates, and since I fully expect that to be Mitt Romney, that's where I think they will go.
Today, theres 50 delegates in Alabama, 40 delegates in Mississippi, plus 20 delegates in Hawaii and 9 delegates in American Samoa. That's 119 delegates out of the 1491 remaining. Unless either Santorum or Gingrich get more delegates than Romney, BOTH should exit the scene, stage right, on the double.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
Bob Schieffer: Congress must stop making excuses and get down to work.
Thursday, 5 November 2009
Monday, 2 November 2009
Viewpoint Extra - NY 23: Republican backs Democrat not Conservative
There has been a further fascinating development in the story of Congressional District NY-23's special election. Ian Beaumont examines these and looks at the possibilities for US right wing politics in the future.
Saturday, 31 October 2009
Viewpoint - NY 23: Conservatism's first big election breakthrough?
In New York, a special election for the House of Representatives has garnered a lot of attention. Ian Beaumont analyses developments.
Thursday, 10 September 2009
Obama’s address to Congress: The real keys.
Okay, here is the key points from President Barack Obama’s address to a special joint session of Congress.
1. Obama proposes that his healthcare reform plan will be deficit-neutral. In other words, it will not add one cent to the US national deficit.
2. If you already have health insurance, you will NOT be forced to change your plan. I repeat, you will NOT be forced to change your plan.
3. Under Obama’s plan, it will be against the law for coverage to be denied because of a pre-existing condition.
4. Under Obama’s plan, insurance companies will not be able to drop coverage or water it down when you get ill.
5. A new insurance exchange will be created for those who change jobs, lose their jobs, and for small business owners.
6. Tax credits will be provided to those who are most struggling to afford health insurance.
7. All individuals will be required to have basic health insurance, in the same way that all drivers are required to have car insurance.
8. The Public Insurance option must be self sufficient like any other business, and rely on the premiums they collect.
9. Not one dollar of Medicare money will be used to pay for health reform.
10. Medicare will be protected.
Those are the main points of an almost 60 minute long speech, interupted many times by standing ovations from the left and the right.
I hate to say it, but knowing the Republican speech was actually written days in advance, long before we knew what was in President Obama’s speech, did seem to render it somewhat meaningless. The fact that someone, we believe a Republican, shouted out “You lie!” at one point, obviously pointed out that some people in Congress have no intention of accepting any reform, even though the President said accepting the status quo is not an option.
This was a good speech, but I do wonder if the partisanship we have seen over the past month can be put to one side, and politicians actually do what they were elected to do, and that is to solve the real problems that America and the world faces.
Monday, 3 August 2009
Viewpoint – Review of Season 1
Ian Beaumont looks back on the stories that have most influenced Viewpoint over this past season just gone.
Tuesday, 9 June 2009
Viewpoint – New York Senate Coup
In the wake of a Republican power grab in the New York State Senate, Ian Beaumont is uncompromising about Republicans and their so called love of "Democracy".
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
Tuesday, 6 January 2009
Katie Couric: The Senate, Roland Burris, Al Franken and the economy.
Yes, these two situations are distractions. The Democrats blocking Burris, the Republicans blocking Franken. I'm afraid it's business as usual in Washington DC, and both sides have lost their focus.
Friday, 24 October 2008
The Sarah Palin fashion row
Okay, I'll grant her that. Joe Biden certainly hasn't had that kind of scrutiny, but in all honesty this row isn't about her as a woman, it's about the Republican Party spending serious money on her outfits, the kind of money that some of us can only earn in the space of 10 years or more.
Add to that that most of us in the western world are experiencing a recession and a credit crunch, and the fact that it goes against campaign finance law, and you have all the REAL reasons why this is a story.
I wish I had $150,000 to spend, never mind the ability to spend it on clothes. Mind you, I probably wouldn't spend that much on clothes anyway. I'm just too cash-conscious.
Tuesday, 29 April 2008
News Roundup: Tuesday 29th April 2008
Commentary: My viewpoint on this is already posted here, but I note the considerable international interest in this story. Most newspaper commentary on this has been predicatbly horrified, whether the paper is politically on the left or the right. The more horrifying thing to me, is not so much that it happened, more that it actually went undetected or untraced for so many years. I find it difficult to believe he handled this entirely on his own. I also find it difficult to believe that his wife knew nothing about it. I hate to say this, but I'm sure there is more to come in this story, and it will not make nice reading.
BBC News: New reseach suggests about half of all Polish and Eastern European migrants who have come to the UK since 2004 have returned home.
Commentary: In a related story, BBC News also reports that a farmer near Peterborough takes on lots of Eastern European migrants to pick fruit and veg at a wage of £7-an-hour. Locals didn't want the job with one person quoted as saying, "...I'd prefer to sign-on than do that." This is what gets me riled up. Some of these lazy people would rather do nothing for a week and earn just £60.50, rather than do 30 hours work, and earn over 3 times as much, before deductions. It's shameful that people are not willing to work for more money than most retail workers get.
MSNBC: US presidential candidate Barack Obama has denounced his former pastor over public comments Reverend Jeremiah Wright has made recently.
Commentary: As the race for the Democratic nomination stretches on towards the convention, you have to wonder if the current situation is hurting the Democrats or the Republicans more. Sure, John McCain may have the Republican nomination sewn up, but the Democratic candidates are dominating the headlines and as the old saying goes, there's no such thing as bad publicity.
Wednesday, 9 April 2008
Momentarily back to the 2006 Congressional Election
Lieberman blamed supporters of rival candidate Ned Lamont for organising the crash via denial of service attacks.
Well, Crooks & Liars reports today that the FBI office in New Haven, Connecticut has concluded that there was no denial of service attack, but that the server was "...overutilized and misconfigured..."
I doubt that Lieberman will remember any of this though. He's moved on to be "Chief Corrections Officer" on the John McCain Republican campaign!
Wednesday, 28 November 2007
A Democrat/Republican ticket?
The word is out that if Dennis Kucinich (Democrat) gets the Democratic Party's nomionation, he wants Ron Paul (Republican) as his running mate.
If a Kucinich/Paul ticket were to emerge, whether it was a Demcoratic or Republican nomination, or an independent ticket, it would be one of the more interesting events of this election so far.
There's been a lot of talk of an independent ticket from Michael Bloomberg or someone else, but this ticket has potential. You can bet this is one story I'll be following all the way.
Monday, 26 November 2007
When Conservatives Attack (your patriotism)!!!
Most useful post, added to my anti-political attack strategy!
Sunday, 18 November 2007
Lou Dobbs and the November Surprise!
I'm more skeptical though about the real meaning behind the commentary. The following is a short excerpt...
"...the arrogance of our political leaders now threatens the future of our nation, and their elitist sense of entitlement has reached such heights that our leaders are now openly dismissive of the will of the people. Working men and women and their families are simply not being represented in Washington.
One year from now, we will have elected a new president. As eager as I am for that reality, I can't imagine any one of the current candidates for their party's nomination being chosen by the American people to lead this nation for the next four years. I believe the person elected a year from now will be an Independent populist, a man or woman who understands the genius of this country lies in the hearts and minds of its people and not in the prerogatives and power of its elites.
As I travel around the country, my feeling about the lack of true candidates is validated by those I talk with: They are not excited about the candidates seeking their party's nomination. The Democratic and Republican Parties have become merely opposite wings of the same bird, and it's the American people who are getting the bird as our elected officials serve their corporate masters and the special interest groups that dominate both parties."
Hmmm... Does he really want to enter, or is he just properly judging the growing mood that I myself have seen from friends on the other side of the Atlantic?I tend to believe the latter.
The Democratic and Republican parties have retreated to their base 20%, leaving the middle 60% of the political spectrum in the centre relatively clear. It's down the centre highway that I choose to travel, and it's so empty down this way that I can travel as fast as I please, whilst those in the left and right highways are stuck in permanent traffic jams, as the parties and their supporters have retreated away from the centre.
I will on this blog highlight some of the other parties that form part of the US political system, but for some reason or another, have yet to come forward and claim the centre ground that is currently unoccupied by either party.
Monday, 5 November 2007
Rudy Giuliani could help GOP ticket???
There's only one problem with that. The republican base do not agree with Rudy on issues that Republicans see as important, such as abortion and gay rights. I'm sorry but I just cannot see the Midwest republican heartland or the religious right voting for someone who supports gay rights or a woman's right to an abortion. Nor do I see that as being any kind of motivation factor for getting the vote out in any races that Giuliani supports. I just don't see it happening.
Tuesday, 11 September 2007
9/11 +6.
You know every time this date comes round, it seems to be more and more infamous every time. There is no doubt that what happened at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon was the kind of event that you do not ever forget if you witnessed it. I happened to be in front of the TV that afternoon UK time, and I did witness the live video footage of the second plane crashing into the other tower of the World Trade Center.
Looking back at the in depth sections of BBC News and CNN reminds me just what a mind numbing event it was, how at the time, we had no immediate idea what had really gone on. Even now, we know a bit about what happened, but we really don't know it all. What has happened since has been the great politicising of 9/11, and the increased divisiveness of politics in the USA, which since Reagan has always been somewhat divided, but the 1994 congressional elections saw it stepped up a level and 9/11 has seen it stepped up to yet another level of intensity.
Patriotism became the new watchword. If you criticised the Bush administration's policies, you were called unpatriotic, or even treasonous. It became almost like the new McCarthyism, where those back in the mid 50s who disagreed with the policies of time were branded as Communists. This was at the time when Stalin ruled the Communist regime of the Soviet Union, and was the "enemy du jour" for the Republican administration of Dwight D Eisenhower.
Now, 6 years on, the world has never seen a more unpopular US president, nor a more divided political landscape, helped in no small part by a so-called news channel, whose real aim is to spread anti-Democrat and pro-Republican propoganda. A channel which blurs the line between news and opinion and not only presents it as fact, but as "Fair and Balanced" news, rather than what it truly is. It is the ultimate in spin-meistering, and it used 9/11 to make itself the most popular news channel in the ratings for years to come.
Now, as unpopular as President Bush has become, Fox News Channel is slowly headed the same way, albeit nowhere nearly as unpopular as the president and his Republican party. But as viewers slowly realise that they are being fed propoganda by Fox News, they are moving away from the channel. Last Friday, Countdown with Keith Olbermann on MSNBC was the most popular programme in the key 25-54 advertising demo, according to the Live + Same Day DVR ratings, beating Bill O'Reilly for the first time ever.
All of this is a result of the wasted opportunity that was basically handed to President Bush in the wake of 9/11. An opportunity to create a truly bi-partisan politics, where both Democrats and Republicans could go forward together in unison, finding common ground. What happened was not that. What happened was Republicans decided how things were going to be and expected everybody to follow like sheep into the pen of warmongering and fearmongering. It happened for a while, but there is an old political saying which Republicans would do well to remember. ""You can fool some of the people all the time, and all the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time."