USA 2012: Alabama, Mississippi, Hawaii, American Samoa

Well, last night during US primetime, it seemed pretty clear that Rick Santorum had a good night. But in the cold light of day now, the figures don't really back up that good feeling he might have had last night.

Despite winning the vote in the two states with the most delegates at stake last night, Rick Santorum has not gained much ground on Mitt Romney. Here's how the figures look today.

Alabama was the state that Santorum won most comfortably, with 34.5% of the vote, against Newt Gingrich in 2nd with 29.3% and Mitt Romney coming 3rd with 29.0%. However in the current delegate count, that only gives Santorum 18 more delegates, with Gingrich getting 12 and Romney 11. 9 delegates at this stage are unallocated. That only gives Santorum a net gain of 7 delegates.

In Mississippi it was much closer, with Santorum getting 32.9% with Gingrich getting 31.3% and Romney getting 30.3%. Which means that in the delegate count, Santorum gets 13, Gingrich 12 and Romney 12. 3 delegates were unallocated. So only a net gain of 1 delegate for Santorum. Total net gain, in the biggest states that were up for grabs last night, 8 delegates.

And that gain is pretty much wiped out from Hawaii. There Mitt Romney won handily, with 45.4% of the vote, Rick Santorum coming second with 25.3% and Ron Paul coming in third with 18.3%. In the delegate count, this means Romney got 9 delegates, Santorum 4 and Ron Paul 1. 6 delegates remain unallocated. That result cuts Santorum's net gain down to just 3 delegates.

And CNN reported that Mitt Romney also won the caucus in American Samoa, which would be another 6 delegates, and 3 more unallocated, though this has yet to be confirmed.

According to Politico, the delegate count is now Romney 463, Santorum 247, Gingrich 127, Paul 47. 100 delegates remain unallocated.

Sunday sees Puerto Rico going to their polls for 20 at large delegates and 3 RNC delegates, winner takes all. Santorum I understand is going to spend two days there to try to win the territory. But I would expect Romney to win this. Which then leads us to next Tuesday and Illinois, which has a large 69 delegate count up for grabs.

With Newt Gingrich not getting any wins last night, especially in his favoured Southern states, he really needs to ask himself if he has a way to the nomination. It seems that Santorum and Gingrich are banking on a brokered convention. But unless the convention goes with the candidate that has the most delegates, any other candidate is going to seem incredibly weak, espeically if they haven't been a part of the process. I can't see anybody other than Mitt Romney being the nominee. The way the states line up, and the fact that California on June 5th is 172 delegates, winner takes all, which I seriously think is one of Romney's states, I just can't see how either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrinch are going to look like anything else other than also-rans the whole way.

Alabama and Mississippi Primaries tonight.

So we have two primaries tonight in Alabama and Mississippi. And the number of delegates that are available to the candidates are falling.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are behind in the delegate race, as is Ron Paul, but we know that Ron Paul is not interested in getting the nomination, but in taking the Republican party away from social conservatism, which moderates and independents do not support.

Mitt Romney needs another 713 delegates out of the remaining 1491. That's about 48%. Rick Santorum needs 932 delegates, or 62.5% of the remaining delegates. Newt Gingrich needs 1041 delegates or 70% of the remaining delegates. Because most of the remianing states assign delegates proportionally, the chances for Santorum and Gingrich to make up the required number of delegates is shrinking down to a very small chance. I'd say both of them have two chances, dogs chance and no chance at all.

And Gingrich has put all his eggs into these two baskets. If he doesn't win both states, he will unquestionably leave the race. But whether this actually benefits Rick Santorum or not is open for debate. Yes, the arguement has been that Newt Gingrich + Rick Santorums vote counts in several states would have taken those states away from Mitt Romney, but it does seem that it is almost too late for that to be a major factor anymore. Romney is the leader in the delegate count, the only count that really matters.

Oh and currently, there are 82 unassigned delegates, who will probably go to Mitt Romney anyway, or whoever has the most number of delegates at the end of this. I cannot see any of these currently unpledged delegates going any other way than to the candidate that will have the most delegates, and since I fully expect that to be Mitt Romney, that's where I think they will go.

Today, theres 50 delegates in Alabama, 40 delegates in Mississippi, plus 20 delegates in Hawaii and 9 delegates in American Samoa. That's 119 delegates out of the 1491 remaining. Unless either Santorum or Gingrich get more delegates than Romney, BOTH should exit the scene, stage right, on the double.